St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Post-game analysis · Wednesday, September 9, 2026
The pick
Take San Francisco Giants +1.5
San Francisco Giants is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 8, 2026 · 10:07 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
STL -1.5
Sportsbooks make St. Louis Cardinals the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8
DraftKings · updated Wed, 3:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
St. Louis Cardinals5
San Francisco Giants6
Final score
St. Louis Cardinals6
San Francisco Giants7
Pick covered
MLB.TV, NBC Sports BA, Cardinals.TV — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 9, 2026
Post-game: Giants Edge Cardinals 7-6, Covering the Spread
On Wednesday, September 9, 2026, the San Francisco Giants edged the St. Louis Cardinals 7-6 in a back-and-forth contest. Our pre-game recommendation backed San Francisco at +1.5 on the tracked DraftKings line, and the outright one-run victory secured a win against our tracked number.
The statistical model saw this matchup well on the side market, projecting a 6-5 Giants victory. That projection identified a tangible edge on the home team relative to market expectations, correctly leaning on San Francisco's recent scoring form to stay within the run line and take the game outright.
The model was less precise with overall run prevention. Both offenses exceeded baseline projections, pushing the combined total to 13 runs against a market line of 8 and our modeled total of 11. While the elevated scoring didn't compromise the spread outcome, our inputs somewhat understated the volatility of both pitching staffs on the day.
Matchup preview · Sep 9, 2026
Preview: St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants host the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday afternoon, with the market total set at 8.5 runs. When our tracking began, DraftKings listed San Francisco at +1.5, though the line has since shifted significantly toward the Giants at -1.5.
Our statistical model projects a closely fought, relatively high-scoring matchup, forecasting a 6–5 win for San Francisco. Built on a 21-game sample of scoring form for each team, the simulation identifies a 1.77-point edge toward the home side relative to a -1.5 market baseline, earning this projection a high rating from the model.
Because the model anticipates San Francisco winning outright by one run, the Giants cover the +1.5 number we took with room to spare. Sports outcomes are inherently variable and projections are never certainties, but the baseline data points to solid value on the home side catching runs.
How the model got here
Model projects 5–6, a 0.3 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 1.77-point edge toward the home side. Based on 21 and 21 games of scoring form.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take San Francisco Giants +1.5
- DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Tue, 10:07 PM EDT
- Locked price -163
- Rating high
- Locked Sep 8, 10:07 PM EDT — before kickoff
- Result win
Players
- Rafael Devers over 1.5 total bases+126DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 9, 5:07 AM EDT · result pending
- Rafael Devers over 0.5 RBIs+180DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 9, 5:07 AM EDT · result pending
- Rafael Devers over 0.5 hits-225DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 9, 5:07 AM EDT · result pending
- Ivan Herrera over 0.5 hits-248DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 8, 11:06 PM EDT · result win
- Joshua Baez over 0.5 hits-181DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 8, 11:06 PM EDT · result win
- Ivan Herrera over 1.5 total bases+129DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 8, 11:06 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- SF · 1B
Rafael Devers over 1.5 total bases
We project 3.5Recent average 3.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +126Rafael Devers has averaged 3.5 total bases over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (+126), and our model projects 3.5 — 2 above the number, so the play is the over.
- SF · 1B
Rafael Devers over 0.5 RBIs
We project 1.6Recent average 1.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +180Rafael Devers has averaged 1.6 RBIs over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+180), and our model projects 1.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
- SF · 1B
Rafael Devers over 0.5 hits
We project 1.5Recent average 1.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -225Rafael Devers has averaged 1.5 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-225), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
- STL · DH
Ivan Herrera over 0.5 hits
We project 1.7Recent average 1.7 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -248Ivan Herrera has averaged 1.7 hits over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-248), and our model projects 1.7 — 1.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Ivan Herrera 1 hits
- STL · LF
Joshua Baez over 0.5 hits
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -181Joshua Baez has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-181), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Joshua Baez 1 hits
- STL · DH
Ivan Herrera over 1.5 total bases
We project 2.5Recent average 2.5 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +129Ivan Herrera has averaged 2.5 total bases over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (+129), and our model projects 2.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ivan Herrera 1 total bases
Records & form
How our picks have graded in MLB, plus how both teams have actually played.
Today's games
- TOR at BALMLB · Mon, 6:35 PM EDTTOR -1.5 · projection only
- WSH at DETMLB · Mon, 6:40 PM EDTDET -1.5 · projection only
- NYR at NJNHL · Mon, 7:00 PM EDTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- PHI at WSHNHL · Mon, 7:00 PM EDTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- DET at CBJNHL · Mon, 7:00 PM EDTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BUF at PITNHL · Mon, 7:00 PM EDTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
Upcoming MLB games
- TOR at BALMLB · Mon, 6:35 PM EDTTOR -1.5 · projection only
- WSH at DETMLB · Mon, 6:40 PM EDTDET -1.5 · projection only
- MIN at SFMLB · Mon, 9:45 PM EDTMIN -1.5 · projection only
- TB at NYYMLB · Tue, 1:05 PM EDTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- TOR at BALMLB · Tue, 6:35 PM EDTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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