Post-game analysisMLBMonday, September 7, 2026Final

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants

Post-game analysis · Monday, September 7, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

STL 6 – SF 5

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: high

The betting line

SF -1.5

Sportsbooks make San Francisco Giants the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8

DraftKings · updated Mon, 8:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

St. Louis Cardinals logo St. Louis Cardinals6

San Francisco Giants logo San Francisco Giants5

Projected result cannot end level in this league, so this display score includes projected extra innings. Our stored projection is unchanged.

Final score

St. Louis Cardinals logo St. Louis Cardinals4

San Francisco Giants logo San Francisco Giants5

Pick covered

NBC, Peacock — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Sep 7, 2026

Post-game: St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants

On Monday, September 7, 2026, the St. Louis Cardinals dropped a 5-4 decision to the San Francisco Giants, but the one-run margin allowed St. Louis to cover the +1.5 run line. Our model flagged the Cardinals at +1.5 as a high-rated position, and the narrow final score kept the pick safely on the winning side.

The projection accurately anticipated a razor-thin contest. Relying on 20-game scoring form, our baseline projected a 5-5 split, identifying a clear statistical edge on the underdog catching a run and a half. San Francisco managed to edge ahead late, but the game played out precisely within the competitive window the model expected.

On the granular side, the model slightly overestimated St. Louis's total run production by a single run. However, the macro read—that the market gave too much credit to the Giants' ability to win by multiple runs—held up. Catching +1.5 in what was fundamentally a coin-flip matchup delivered the expected value.

Matchup preview · Sep 7, 2026

Cardinals vs. Giants: Model Sees Value on St. Louis Run Line

The San Francisco Giants host the St. Louis Cardinals with the betting market setting the home side as 1.5-run favorites alongside a 7.5-run total. While the market expects San Francisco to comfortably dictate the pace, recent performance data indicates the gap between these two teams is narrower than the pricing implies.

Our statistical model, calibrated on 20-game scoring form samples for both clubs, projects a final score of 5.3 to 5.1 in favor of the Giants. Although the model anticipates more offense than the market total suggests, the critical metric is the projected scoring differential. San Francisco holds just a 0.2-run projected edge over St. Louis.

Comparing that 0.2-run projected margin against the market spread of 1.5 yields a significant 1.3-point edge toward the road side. Because the model expects the Cardinals to keep this within a single run or contend for an outright win, the pick is St. Louis +1.5 with high confidence. While statistical projections cannot eliminate diamond variance, the value cleanly rests with the underdog.

How the model got here

Model projects 5–5, a 0.2 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 1.3-point edge toward the road side. Based on 20 and 20 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Ivan Herrera over 0.5 hits
STL · DH
We project 1.8Recent average 1.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -237
Ivan Herrera has averaged 1.6 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 13% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-237), and our model projects 1.8 — 1.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Ivan Herrera 1 hits
Ivan Herrera over 0.5 RBIs
STL · DH
We project 1.5Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +250
Ivan Herrera has averaged 1.4 RBIs over 10 recent games, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 13% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+250), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ivan Herrera 0 RBIs
Joshua Baez over 0.5 hits
STL · LF
We project 1.5Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -166
Joshua Baez has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 13% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-166), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Joshua Baez 1 hits
Turner Hill over 0.5 hits
SF · LF
We project 1.3Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -191
Turner Hill has averaged 1.1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-191), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Turner Hill 0 hits
Turner Hill over 0.5 RBIs
SF · LF
We project 1Recent average 0.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +209
Turner Hill has averaged 0.8 RBIs over 10 recent games, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+209), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Turner Hill 0 RBIs
Jung Hoo Lee over 0.5 RBIs
SF · RF
We project 0.8Recent average 0.7 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +180
Jung Hoo Lee has averaged 0.7 RBIs over 10 recent games, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+180), and our model projects 0.8 — 0.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jung Hoo Lee 0 RBIs