St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Post-game analysis · Thursday, September 24, 2026
The pick
Take St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
St. Louis Cardinals is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points. The live market is no longer posted, so this pick stands on the +1.5 number locked before kickoff.
Pick locked in: Sep 22, 2026 · 11:38 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
STL +1.5
The live sportsbook market is no longer posted. This is the number our pick was locked against before kickoff.
DraftKings
Our projected score
St. Louis Cardinals4
Pittsburgh Pirates5
Final score
St. Louis Cardinals1
Pittsburgh Pirates2
Pick covered
MLB.TV, Cardinals.TV — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 24, 2026
Post-game: Cardinals Cover +1.5 in Close Loss to Pirates
On Thursday, September 24, 2026, the Pittsburgh Pirates edged out a 2–1 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals. Despite the outright defeat, St. Louis covered the tracked DraftKings +1.5 run line, securing a win for our high-rated pick.
The statistical model accurately anticipated a tight contest. Projecting a 5–4 Pittsburgh win, the model calculated a notable edge on St. Louis staying within the 1.5-run spread. That expectation of a one-run margin proved correct, as the Cardinals' pitching kept the game within reach until the final out.
Where the projection missed was the overall run environment. Relying on recent multi-week scoring form, the model expected nine total runs, but the matchup instead played out as a quiet pitching duel producing just three. While the reduced offense did not prevent the Cardinals from covering the spread, it shows the baseline run estimates were too high for how this game unfolded.
Matchup preview · Sep 24, 2026
Preview: St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates host the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday afternoon in an NL Central clash, with the total set at 7.5 runs. When our model locked in the matchup, we tracked the Cardinals at +1.5 on DraftKings, positioning St. Louis as road underdogs against a favored Pittsburgh squad.
Our statistical projection anticipates a tight, competitive game, forecasting a 5–4 Pittsburgh victory. That output is derived from recent scoring profiles across 31 games for St. Louis and 33 for Pittsburgh. While the projection leans toward the Pirates winning outright, it calculates an underlying margin of just 0.4 runs. Against the 1.5-run market cushion we took, the model identifies a 1.09-point statistical edge on the road underdog.
Because the projected one-run deficit safely falls inside the tracked spread, our model issues a high rating on St. Louis +1.5. Individual baseball games carry inherent variance, and statistical models do not guarantee results, but the multi-week scoring form indicates that taking the run line with the Cardinals presents solid value.
How the model got here
Model projects 4–5, a 0.4 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 1.09-point edge toward the road side. Based on 31 and 33 games of scoring form.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
- DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Tue, 11:37 PM EDT
- Locked price -207
- Rating high
- Locked Sep 22, 11:38 PM EDT — before kickoff
- Result win
Players
- Ivan Herrera over 0.5 hits+155DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:08 PM EDT · result win
- Bryan Reynolds over 0.5 hits+125DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:08 PM EDT · result loss
- Ivan Herrera over 0.5 RBIs+500DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:08 PM EDT · result loss
- Ivan Herrera under 1.5 runs scored-500DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:08 PM EDT · result win
- Nick Gonzales under 1.5 hits-165DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:08 PM EDT · result win
- Jake Mangum over 0.5 hits-105DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:08 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- STL · DH
Ivan Herrera over 0.5 hits
We project 1.5Recent average 1.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +155Ivan Herrera has averaged 1.5 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+155), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Ivan Herrera 1 hits
- PIT · LF
Bryan Reynolds over 0.5 hits
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +125Bryan Reynolds has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+125), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Bryan Reynolds 0 hits
- STL · DH
Ivan Herrera over 0.5 RBIs
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +500Ivan Herrera has averaged 1.2 RBIs over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+500), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ivan Herrera 0 RBIs
- STL · DH
Ivan Herrera under 1.5 runs scored
We project 0.8Recent average 0.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -500Ivan Herrera has averaged 0.8 runs scored over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-500), and our model projects 0.8 — 0.7 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Ivan Herrera 0 runs scored
- PIT · 3B
Nick Gonzales under 1.5 hits
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -165Nick Gonzales has averaged 0.9 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-165), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Nick Gonzales 1 hits
- PIT · CF
Jake Mangum over 0.5 hits
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -105Jake Mangum has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-105), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jake Mangum 0 hits
Records & form
How our picks have graded in MLB, plus how both teams have actually played.
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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