St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Post-game analysis · Wednesday, September 23, 2026
The pick
Take St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
St. Louis Cardinals is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points. The live market is no longer posted, so this pick stands on the +1.5 number locked before kickoff.
Pick locked in: Sep 22, 2026 · 7:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
STL +1.5
The live sportsbook market is no longer posted. This is the number our pick was locked against before kickoff.
DraftKings
Our projected score
St. Louis Cardinals4
Pittsburgh Pirates5
Final score
St. Louis Cardinals5
Pittsburgh Pirates1
Pick covered
MLB.TV, Cardinals.TV — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 23, 2026
Post-game: Cardinals top Pirates 5-1 to cover spread
On Wednesday, September 23, 2026, the St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-1. Our model recommended St. Louis at +1.5 on the tracked DraftKings spread, and the Cardinals beat the number comfortably by securing an outright four-run victory on the road.
The model correctly identified value on the underdog, leaning on both clubs' previous 30-plus games of scoring form to project a tight contest. It forecasted a 5-4 Pittsburgh win, finding an actionable edge in backing St. Louis to stay within the 1.5-run cushion.
Where the projection missed was the overall run environment and defensive execution. The model anticipated a higher-scoring affair with Pittsburgh producing five runs, but Cardinals pitching suppressed the Pirates' lineup to just a single tally across nine innings. While the exact final score diverged from the projection, our high-rated position on St. Louis +1.5 cashed without drama.
Matchup preview · Sep 23, 2026
Preview: St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
The St. Louis Cardinals visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday evening in a matchup where our statistical framework finds value on the underdog. When our tracked numbers published, DraftKings listed the Cardinals at +1.5 on the run line, paired with an overall game total of 5.5 runs.
Our model projects a tightly contested 5–4 victory for Pittsburgh. Evaluating recent form across 30 games of scoring data for St. Louis and 32 games for Pittsburgh, the simulation calculates a projected margin of just 0.4 runs. Measured against the +1.5 spread we took, that creates a 1.14-point edge in favor of the road side.
Because a projected one-run loss allows the Cardinals to cover the +1.5 cushion, our system issues a high rating on St. Louis to cover the spread. Baseball outcomes carry inherent variance and statistical models cannot guarantee results, but the data indicates that taking the run and a half offers solid relative value.
How the model got here
Model projects 4–5, a 0.4 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 1.14-point edge toward the road side. Based on 30 and 32 games of scoring form.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
- DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Tue, 7:07 PM EDT
- Locked price -196
- Rating high
- Locked Sep 22, 7:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
- Result win
Players
- Thomas Saggese over 0.5 hits+330DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 8:18 PM EDT · result pending
- Oneil Cruz over 0.5 hits+320DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 8:18 PM EDT · result pending
- Ivan Herrera over 0.5 hits+185DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 8:18 PM EDT · result loss
- Bryan Reynolds over 0.5 hits+280DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 8:18 PM EDT · result loss
- Brandon Lowe over 0.5 hits+280DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 8:18 PM EDT · result win
- Ivan Herrera over 0.5 RBIs+900DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 8:18 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- STL · SS
Thomas Saggese over 0.5 hits
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +330Thomas Saggese has averaged 1.4 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+330), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
Still qualifies at the current line. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
- PIT · CF
Oneil Cruz over 0.5 hits
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +320Oneil Cruz has averaged 1 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+320), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
Still qualifies at the current line. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
- STL · DH
Ivan Herrera over 0.5 hits
We project 1.5Recent average 1.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +185Ivan Herrera has averaged 1.5 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+185), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ivan Herrera 0 hits
- PIT · LF
Bryan Reynolds over 0.5 hits
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +280Bryan Reynolds has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+280), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Bryan Reynolds 0 hits
- PIT · 2B
Brandon Lowe over 0.5 hits
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +280Brandon Lowe has averaged 1.2 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+280), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Brandon Lowe 2 hits
- STL · DH
Ivan Herrera over 0.5 RBIs
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +900Ivan Herrera has averaged 1.2 RBIs over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+900), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ivan Herrera 0 RBIs
Records & form
How our picks have graded in MLB, plus how both teams have actually played.
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
Upcoming MLB games
No other MLB games scheduled right now.
Popular games from other leagues
Our strongest upcoming calls outside MLB.