St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Post-game analysis · Tuesday, September 22, 2026
The pick
Take St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
St. Louis Cardinals is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 21, 2026 · 3:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
PIT -1.5
Sportsbooks make Pittsburgh Pirates the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 7
DraftKings · updated Tue, 6:08 PM EDT
Our projected score
St. Louis Cardinals4
Pittsburgh Pirates5
Final score
St. Louis Cardinals0
Pittsburgh Pirates2
Pick missed
MLB.TV, Cardinals.TV — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 22, 2026
Post-game: Pirates shut out Cardinals as St. Louis +1.5 falls
On Tuesday, September 22, 2026, the Pittsburgh Pirates blanked the St. Louis Cardinals 2-0. We backed the Cardinals at +1.5 on the run line with a high model rating, but St. Louis’s inability to scratch across a single run handed our tracked pick a clear loss.
Our statistical model anticipated a competitive, one-run game, projecting a 5-4 Pittsburgh victory and a 1.14-point edge on the road underdog. While the model correctly leaned toward the Pirates winning outright, it completely misjudged the offensive environment. Rather than the lively nine-run output suggested by recent scoring trends, pitching dictated the evening from the opening frame.
When an offense is held scoreless, even a generous 1.5-run cushion rarely survives. We expected St. Louis to keep the final margin tight enough to cover, but Pittsburgh’s arms shut the door and took the cover with it. We will log the loss and recalibrate ahead of the next slate.
Matchup preview · Sep 22, 2026
Preview: St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
The St. Louis Cardinals visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday evening for an NL Central matchup. Our statistical model projects a tight, one-run contest, forecasting a final score of Pittsburgh 5, St. Louis 4 alongside a game total set at 7.
When we published, we tracked the Cardinals at +1.5 on DraftKings. While the projection leans toward a straight-up Pittsburgh victory, the single-run margin keeps St. Louis comfortably within that 1.5-run cushion. Based on 30 and 32 games of recent team scoring form, the model estimates a 1.14-point edge toward the road underdog covering the number we took.
Given that differential, our model gives St. Louis +1.5 a high rating. These simulations are grounded in baseline statistical distributions rather than guarantees, but the data points toward the Cardinals keeping this game within reach.
How the model got here
Model projects 4–5, a 0.4 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 1.14-point edge toward the road side. Based on 30 and 32 games of scoring form.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
- DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Mon, 3:07 PM EDT
- Locked price -186
- Rating high
- Locked Sep 21, 3:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
- Result loss
Players
- Bryan Reynolds over 0.5 hits-222DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 7:18 PM EDT · result win
- Brandon Lowe over 0.5 hits-219DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 7:18 PM EDT · result loss
- Oneil Cruz over 0.5 hits-186DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 7:18 PM EDT · result loss
- Jordan Walker over 0.5 hits-185DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 7:18 PM EDT · result loss
- Ivan Herrera over 0.5 hits-201DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 7:18 PM EDT · result loss
- Thomas Saggese over 0.5 hits-193DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 7:18 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- PIT · LF
Bryan Reynolds over 0.5 hits
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -222Bryan Reynolds has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-222), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Bryan Reynolds 1 hits
- PIT · 2B
Brandon Lowe over 0.5 hits
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -219Brandon Lowe has averaged 1.2 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-219), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Brandon Lowe 0 hits
- PIT · CF
Oneil Cruz over 0.5 hits
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -186Oneil Cruz has averaged 1 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-186), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Oneil Cruz 0 hits
- STL · RF
Jordan Walker over 0.5 hits
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -185Jordan Walker has averaged 1 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-185), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jordan Walker 0 hits
- STL · DH
Ivan Herrera over 0.5 hits
We project 1.5Recent average 1.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -201Ivan Herrera has averaged 1.5 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-201), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ivan Herrera 0 hits
- STL · SS
Thomas Saggese over 0.5 hits
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -193Thomas Saggese has averaged 1.4 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-193), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Thomas Saggese 0 hits
Records & form
How our picks have graded in MLB, plus how both teams have actually played.
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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