Post-game analysisMLBFriday, September 18, 2026Final

Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies

Post-game analysis · Friday, September 18, 2026

The pick

Take Colorado Rockies +1.5

Colorado Rockies is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 18, 2026 · 5:08 AM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

The betting line

SEA -1.5

Sportsbooks make Seattle Mariners the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 10.5

DraftKings · updated Fri, 8:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Seattle Mariners logo Seattle Mariners5

Colorado Rockies logo Colorado Rockies6

Final score

Seattle Mariners logo Seattle Mariners5

Colorado Rockies logo Colorado Rockies4

Pick covered

MLB.TV, Rockies.TV, Mariners.TV — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Sep 18, 2026

Post-game: Rockies Cover +1.5 in One-Run Loss to Mariners

On Friday, September 18, 2026, the Colorado Rockies fell 5–4 to the Seattle Mariners, but our high-rated pick on Colorado +1.5 beat the tracked spread. Despite dropping the game outright, the one-run defeat was enough to keep the Rockies inside the number.

The model accurately anticipated a tight, high-scoring affair and dialed in Seattle’s offense perfectly, projecting the Mariners to finish with exactly five runs. Backing Colorado on the run line provided the necessary cushion against a Seattle team that met its scoring expectations.

The projection was not entirely clean, however. The model overestimated Colorado’s output, calling for six runs and an outright home victory rather than the four they actually produced. While Colorado came up a bit short at the plate, the handicap held firm to secure a win against the tracked line.

How the model got here

Model projects 5–6, a -0.3 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 1.24-point edge toward the home side. Based on 29 and 28 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take Colorado Rockies +1.5

DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Fri, 5:07 AM EDT
Locked price -102
Rating high
Locked Sep 18, 5:08 AM EDT — before kickoff
Result win

Players

TJ Rumfield over 0.5 hits-244DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 7:07 AM EDT · result win
Cal Raleigh over 0.5 hits-256DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 7:07 AM EDT · result loss
Cole Carrigg over 0.5 hits-240DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 7:07 AM EDT · result win
Cal Raleigh over 0.5 runs scored-167DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 7:07 AM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Bryan Woo over 4.5 strikeouts
SEA · SP
We project 8.1Recent average 8.1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -137
Bryan Woo has averaged 8.1 strikeouts over 2 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-137), and our model projects 8.1 — 3.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Bryan Woo 4 strikeouts
Adael Amador over 0.5 hits
COL · 2B
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -189
Adael Amador has averaged 1.3 hits over 5 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-189), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Adael Amador 0 hits
TJ Rumfield over 0.5 hits
COL · 1B
We project 1.7Recent average 1.7 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -244
TJ Rumfield has averaged 1.7 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-244), and our model projects 1.7 — 1.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: TJ Rumfield 1 hits
Cal Raleigh over 0.5 hits
SEA · C
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -256
Cal Raleigh has averaged 1.4 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-256), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Cal Raleigh 0 hits
Cole Carrigg over 0.5 hits
COL · CF
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -240
Cole Carrigg has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-240), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Cole Carrigg 3 hits
Cal Raleigh over 0.5 runs scored
SEA · C
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -167
Cal Raleigh has averaged 0.9 runs scored over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-167), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Cal Raleigh 0 runs scored