Post-game analysisMLBFriday, September 18, 2026Final

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

Post-game analysis · Friday, September 18, 2026

The pick

Take San Francisco Giants +1.5

San Francisco Giants is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 17, 2026 · 4:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

The betting line

LAD -1.5

Sportsbooks make Los Angeles Dodgers the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8

DraftKings · updated Fri, 10:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

San Francisco Giants logo San Francisco Giants4

Los Angeles Dodgers logo Los Angeles Dodgers5

Final score

San Francisco Giants logo San Francisco Giants2

Los Angeles Dodgers logo Los Angeles Dodgers8

Pick missed

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Post-game analysis · Sep 18, 2026

Post-game: Dodgers pull away from Giants, beating tracked spread

On Friday, September 18, 2026, the San Francisco Giants fell 8-2 to the Los Angeles Dodgers, failing to cover our tracked DraftKings spread of Giants +1.5. Our medium-rated play on the road underdog resulted in a decisive loss as Los Angeles pulled away to clear the run line with ease.

Our statistical model had projected a much tighter 5–4 contest, anticipating San Francisco’s recent scoring form would keep the final margin within a single run. While the projection correctly identified the Dodgers as the outright winner, it missed the mark on game flow, overestimating San Francisco's bats while underestimating the ceiling of the Los Angeles offense.

Leaning into a 0.66-point edge against a 1.5-run market spread left no margin for error. Once the Giants stalled at two runs and the Dodgers generated separation, our position was finished. We take the loss cleanly and will continue refining how the model weights late-season divisional matchups.

How the model got here

Model projects 4–5, a 0.8 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 0.66-point edge toward the road side. Based on 28 and 29 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Teoscar Hernandez over 0.5 hits-226DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 3:18 AM EDT · result win
Bryce Eldridge over 0.5 hits-142DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 3:18 AM EDT · result pending
Turner Hill over 0.5 hits-149DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 3:18 AM EDT · result loss
Freddie Freeman over 0.5 hits-241DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 3:18 AM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Cesar Perdomo over 2.5 strikeouts
SF · RP
We project 4Recent average 4 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -159
Cesar Perdomo has averaged 4 strikeouts over 2 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-159), and our model projects 4 — 1.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Cesar Perdomo 1 strikeouts
Tommy Edman under 1.5 hits
LAD · 2B
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 9 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -244
Tommy Edman has averaged 1.3 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-244), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.2 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Tommy Edman 0 hits
Teoscar Hernandez over 0.5 hits
LAD · LF
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -226
Teoscar Hernandez has averaged 1.4 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-226), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Teoscar Hernandez 2 hits
Bryce Eldridge over 0.5 hits
SF · DH
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -142
Bryce Eldridge has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-142), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
Still qualifies at the current line. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Turner Hill over 0.5 hits
SF · LF
We project 1Recent average 1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -149
Turner Hill has averaged 1 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-149), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Turner Hill 0 hits
Freddie Freeman over 0.5 hits
LAD · 1B
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -241
Freddie Freeman has averaged 0.9 hits over 8 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-241), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Freddie Freeman 0 hits