San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Post-game analysis · Tuesday, September 22, 2026
The pick
Take Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5
Los Angeles Dodgers is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 21, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
LAD -1.5
Sportsbooks make Los Angeles Dodgers the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8.5
DraftKings · updated Tue, 10:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
San Diego Padres4
Los Angeles Dodgers5
Final score
San Diego Padres0
Los Angeles Dodgers7
Pick covered
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Post-game analysis · Sep 22, 2026
Post-game: Dodgers Blank Padres in Dominant 7-0 Win
On Tuesday, September 22, 2026, the Los Angeles Dodgers swept past the San Diego Padres with a decisive 7-0 victory. Backing Los Angeles at the tracked spread of +1.5 produced a comfortable win, as the Dodgers took control early and maintained their lead throughout.
The model correctly pointed toward value on the home side, projecting an outright Dodgers victory and identifying a measurable edge over the market number. Backing Los Angeles proved well-founded, aligning with our statistical indicators over both teams' recent stretches of play.
Where the projection diverged from reality was the overall run environment. The model anticipated a tighter 5–4 contest, expecting San Diego to produce four runs. Instead, the Dodgers' pitching staff delivered a complete shutout, making the final result far more lopsided than our baseline expected. While the side won cleanly, the model missed on the Padres' complete lack of offensive output.
Matchup preview · Sep 22, 2026
Preview: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night in an NL West matchup where our statistical model anticipates a tightly contested game. Analyzing 31 games of recent scoring form for each club, the model projects a 5-4 victory for Los Angeles, aligning closely with the posted total of 8 runs.
The primary value here hinges on the number we took. We tracked the Dodgers at +1.5 on DraftKings before the market shifted toward Los Angeles at -1.5. With the model forecasting an outright one-run win for the Dodgers, taking the home side with run-line insurance yields a 1.99-point edge against the market expectations.
Because of that sizable cushion between the projected outcome and the tracked line, the model assigns a high rating to the Dodgers +1.5. Baseball outcomes carry inherent variance and no projection is a certainty, but the underlying scoring data indicates solid value on Los Angeles covering the tracked spread.
How the model got here
Model projects 4–5, a 0.5 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 1.99-point edge toward the home side. Based on 31 and 31 games of scoring form.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5
- DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Mon, 8:07 PM EDT
- Locked price -194
- Rating high
- Locked Sep 21, 8:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
- Result win
Players
- Mookie Betts over 0.5 hits-233DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 6:07 AM EDT · result win
- Teoscar Hernandez over 0.5 hits-139DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 6:07 AM EDT · result win
- Manny Machado over 0.5 hits-206DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 6:07 AM EDT · result loss
- Mookie Betts over 0.5 RBIs+210DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 6:07 AM EDT · result win
- Ty France over 0.5 hits-202DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 6:07 AM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- SD · C
Luis Campusano over 0.5 hits
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 7 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -140Luis Campusano has averaged 0.9 hits over 7 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-140), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Luis Campusano 2 hits
- LAD · SS
Mookie Betts over 0.5 hits
We project 1.7Recent average 1.7 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -233Mookie Betts has averaged 1.7 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-233), and our model projects 1.7 — 1.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Mookie Betts 1 hits
- LAD · LF
Teoscar Hernandez over 0.5 hits
We project 1.5Recent average 1.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -139Teoscar Hernandez has averaged 1.5 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-139), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Teoscar Hernandez 1 hits
- SD · 3B
Manny Machado over 0.5 hits
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -206Manny Machado has averaged 1.2 hits over 8 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-206), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Manny Machado 0 hits
- LAD · SS
Mookie Betts over 0.5 RBIs
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +210Mookie Betts has averaged 1.2 RBIs over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+210), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Mookie Betts 1 RBIs
- SD · 1B
Ty France over 0.5 hits
We project 1Recent average 1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -202Ty France has averaged 1 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-202), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ty France 0 hits
Records & form
How our picks have graded in MLB, plus how both teams have actually played.
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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