Post-game analysisMLBThursday, September 17, 2026Final

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

Post-game analysis · Thursday, September 17, 2026

The pick

Take Colorado Rockies +1.5

Colorado Rockies is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points. The live market is no longer posted, so this pick stands on the +1.5 number locked before kickoff.

Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

The betting line

COL +1.5

The live sportsbook market is no longer posted. This is the number our pick was locked against before kickoff.

DraftKings

Our projected score

San Diego Padres logo San Diego Padres5

Colorado Rockies logo Colorado Rockies4

Final score

San Diego Padres logo San Diego Padres9

Colorado Rockies logo Colorado Rockies2

Pick missed

ESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV, Padres.TV — Local availability can differ.

How the model got here

Model projects 5–4, a -0.9 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 0.62-point edge toward the home side. Based on 26 and 25 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Fernando Tatis Jr. under 1.5 hits-151DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 4:09 PM EDT · result win
Ty France under 1.5 hits-191DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 4:09 PM EDT · result loss
TJ Rumfield over 0.5 hits-240DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 4:09 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Mason Adams over 3.5 strikeouts
COL · RP
We project 6.1Recent average 6.1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -108
Mason Adams has averaged 6.1 strikeouts over 2 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-108), and our model projects 6.1 — 2.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
Leans the same way at a different number. Tracked at over 3.5. The current line has moved to 1.5. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Adael Amador over 0.5 hits
COL · 2B
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -190
Adael Amador has averaged 1.3 hits over 5 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-190), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Adael Amador 0 hits
Luis Campusano under 1.5 hits
SD · C
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 7 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -248
Luis Campusano has averaged 0.9 hits over 7 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-248), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Luis Campusano 0 hits
Fernando Tatis Jr. under 1.5 hits
SD · RF
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -151
Fernando Tatis Jr. has averaged 0.9 hits over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-151), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Fernando Tatis Jr. 1 hits
Ty France under 1.5 hits
SD · 1B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -191
Ty France has averaged 1 hits over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-191), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Ty France 3 hits
TJ Rumfield over 0.5 hits
COL · 1B
We project 1.7Recent average 1.7 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -240
TJ Rumfield has averaged 1.7 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-240), and our model projects 1.7 — 1.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: TJ Rumfield 1 hits