Post-game analysisMLBSaturday, September 12, 2026Final

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 12, 2026

The pick

Take Chicago Cubs +1.5

Chicago Cubs is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 11, 2026 · 6:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

The betting line

CHC -1.5

Sportsbooks make Chicago Cubs the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 9.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 2:06 PM EDT

Our projected score

Pittsburgh Pirates logo Pittsburgh Pirates4

Chicago Cubs logo Chicago Cubs5

Final score

Pittsburgh Pirates logo Pittsburgh Pirates3

Chicago Cubs logo Chicago Cubs4

Pick covered

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Matchup preview · Sep 12, 2026

Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday afternoon, with our statistical model projecting a competitive 5-4 victory for Chicago. With the game's total sitting at 9, our baseline expectation points toward moderate scoring from both lineups, drawing from 22 recent games of scoring form for the Cubs and 23 for the Pirates.

When the line was tracked, we took the Cubs at +1.5 via DraftKings. The market has since adjusted, moving Chicago to a -1.5 favorite, but our official grade reflects the initial +1.5 number. With the model projecting a 1.3-run margin in favor of the home side, the simulation identifies a 2.83-point edge toward Chicago relative to the market benchmark.

With the model forecasting an outright Cubs win, backing Chicago with 1.5 runs of cushion earns a high rating from our system. While no statistical model can account for all in-game variance, the underlying scoring trends lean toward the Cubs covering the number we took.

How the model got here

Model projects 4–5, a 1.3 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 2.83-point edge toward the home side. Based on 23 and 22 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take Chicago Cubs +1.5

DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Fri, 6:06 PM EDT
Locked price -194
Rating high
Locked Sep 11, 6:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
Result win

Players

Nico Hoerner over 0.5 hits-235DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 9:08 PM EDT · result win
Pete Crow-Armstrong over 0.5 hits-237DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 9:08 PM EDT · result loss
Bryan Reynolds over 0.5 hits-216DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 9:08 PM EDT · result win
Alex Bregman over 0.5 hits-206DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 9:08 PM EDT · result win
Brandon Lowe over 0.5 hits-210DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 9:08 PM EDT · result win
Oneil Cruz over 0.5 hits-204DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 9:08 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Nico Hoerner over 0.5 hits
CHC · 2B
We project 1.5Recent average 1.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -235
Nico Hoerner has averaged 1.5 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-235), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Nico Hoerner 1 hits
Pete Crow-Armstrong over 0.5 hits
CHC · CF
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -237
Pete Crow-Armstrong has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-237), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Pete Crow-Armstrong 0 hits
Bryan Reynolds over 0.5 hits
PIT · LF
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -216
Bryan Reynolds has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-216), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Bryan Reynolds 1 hits
Alex Bregman over 0.5 hits
CHC · 3B
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -206
Alex Bregman has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-206), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Alex Bregman 1 hits
Brandon Lowe over 0.5 hits
PIT · 2B
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -210
Brandon Lowe has averaged 1.1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-210), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Brandon Lowe 1 hits
Oneil Cruz over 0.5 hits
PIT · CF
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -204
Oneil Cruz has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-204), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Oneil Cruz 0 hits