Post-game analysisMLBSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

The pick

Take New York Mets +1.5

New York Mets is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points. The live market is no longer posted, so this pick stands on the +1.5 number locked before kickoff.

Pick locked in: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

The betting line

NYM +1.5

The live sportsbook market is no longer posted. This is the number our pick was locked against before kickoff.

DraftKings

Our projected score

Philadelphia Phillies logo Philadelphia Phillies4

New York Mets logo New York Mets5

Final score

Philadelphia Phillies logo Philadelphia Phillies3

New York Mets logo New York Mets10

Pick covered

ESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV, NBC Sports Phil — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Queens to face the New York Mets on Saturday evening. When lines opened, our tracked DraftKings spread had the Mets catching +1.5 runs. While updated market lines are not currently posted, our statistical model identifies solid value backing the home side with the extra run and a half.

Across a 28-game sample of recent scoring form for both clubs, the model projects a 5-4 victory for New York. That projection indicates the Mets do not just stay within the +1.5 margin we took, but hold a path to winning outright, generating a 1.36-point statistical edge relative to the tracked market number.

Because the simulation favors the Mets outright against the plus-money spread, our model gives a high rating to the New York Mets +1.5. As always, baseline statistical projections reflect probabilities rather than guarantees, but the data clearly points toward New York keeping this divisional matchup competitive and covering the spread.

How the model got here

Model projects 4–5, a -0.1 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 1.36-point edge toward the home side. Based on 28 and 28 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take New York Mets +1.5

DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Thu, 11:04 PM EDT
Locked price -194
Rating high
Locked Sep 17, 11:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
Result win

Players

Bryce Harper over 0.5 hits+110DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 8:18 PM EDT · result win
Luis Arraez over 0.5 hits-105DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 8:18 PM EDT · result win
Alec Bohm over 0.5 hits-165DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 8:18 PM EDT · result win
Bo Bichette under 1.5 runs scored-360DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 8:18 PM EDT · result win
Brett Baty over 0.5 RBIs+370DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 8:18 PM EDT · result win
Carson Benge under 1.5 hits-160DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 8:18 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Bryce Harper over 0.5 hits
PHI · 1B
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +110
Bryce Harper has averaged 1.4 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+110), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Bryce Harper 1 hits
Luis Arraez over 0.5 hits
PHI · 2B
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -105
Luis Arraez has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-105), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Luis Arraez 2 hits
Alec Bohm over 0.5 hits
PHI · 3B
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -165
Alec Bohm has averaged 1.1 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-165), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Alec Bohm 2 hits
Bo Bichette under 1.5 runs scored
NYM · 3B
We project 0.7Recent average 0.7 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -360
Bo Bichette has averaged 0.7 runs scored over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-360), and our model projects 0.7 — 0.8 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Bo Bichette 0 runs scored
Brett Baty over 0.5 RBIs
NYM · 3B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +370
Brett Baty has averaged 1 RBIs over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+370), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Brett Baty 1 RBIs
Carson Benge under 1.5 hits
NYM · RF
We project 0.8Recent average 0.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -160
Carson Benge has averaged 0.8 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-160), and our model projects 0.8 — 0.7 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Carson Benge 3 hits