Post-game analysisMLBFriday, September 18, 2026Final

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Post-game analysis · Friday, September 18, 2026

The pick

Take New York Mets +1.5

New York Mets is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points. The live market is no longer posted, so this pick stands on the +1.5 number locked before kickoff.

Pick locked in: Sep 17, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

The betting line

NYM +1.5

The live sportsbook market is no longer posted. This is the number our pick was locked against before kickoff.

DraftKings

Our projected score

Philadelphia Phillies logo Philadelphia Phillies5

New York Mets logo New York Mets4

Final score

Philadelphia Phillies logo Philadelphia Phillies3

New York Mets logo New York Mets6

Pick covered

Apple TV — Local availability can differ.

How the model got here

Model projects 5–4, a -0.1 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 1.45-point edge toward the home side. Based on 27 and 27 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take New York Mets +1.5

DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Thu, 8:08 PM EDT
Locked price -263
Rating high
Locked Sep 17, 8:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
Result win

Players

Luis Arraez over 0.5 hits+100DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 8:07 PM EDT · result loss
Alec Bohm over 0.5 hits+135DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 8:07 PM EDT · result loss
Brett Baty over 0.5 RBIs+475DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 8:07 PM EDT · result loss
Bryce Harper under 2.5 hits-170DraftKings line 2.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 8:07 PM EDT · result win
Jared Young over 0.5 runs scored+225DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 8:07 PM EDT · result pending
A.J. Ewing over 0.5 hits-115DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 8:07 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Luis Arraez over 0.5 hits
PHI · 2B
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +100
Luis Arraez has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+100), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Luis Arraez 0 hits
Alec Bohm over 0.5 hits
PHI · 3B
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +135
Alec Bohm has averaged 1.1 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+135), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Alec Bohm 0 hits
Brett Baty over 0.5 RBIs
NYM · 3B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +475
Brett Baty has averaged 1 RBIs over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+475), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Brett Baty 0 RBIs
Bryce Harper under 2.5 hits
PHI · 1B
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -170
Bryce Harper has averaged 1.4 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-170), and our model projects 1.4 — 1.1 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Bryce Harper 0 hits
Jared Young over 0.5 runs scored
NYM · 1B
We project 0.8Recent average 0.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +225
Jared Young has averaged 0.8 runs scored over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+225), and our model projects 0.8 — 0.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
Still qualifies at the current line. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
A.J. Ewing over 0.5 hits
NYM · CF
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -115
A.J. Ewing has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-115), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: A.J. Ewing 1 hits