Post-game analysisMLBThursday, September 17, 2026Final

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Post-game analysis · Thursday, September 17, 2026

The pick

Take Philadelphia Phillies +1.5

Philadelphia Phillies is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 16, 2026 · 9:09 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

The betting line

NYM -1.5

Sportsbooks make New York Mets the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8

DraftKings · updated Thu, 7:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Philadelphia Phillies logo Philadelphia Phillies6

New York Mets logo New York Mets5

Final score

Philadelphia Phillies logo Philadelphia Phillies3

New York Mets logo New York Mets0

Pick covered

MLB.TV, FOX — Local availability can differ.

How the model got here

Model projects 6–5, a 0.1 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 1.43-point edge toward the road side. Based on 26 and 26 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take Philadelphia Phillies +1.5

DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Wed, 9:08 PM EDT
Locked price -175
Rating high
Locked Sep 16, 9:09 PM EDT — before kickoff
Result win

Players

Bryce Harper over 0.5 hits-200DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 10:08 PM EDT · result win
Luis Arraez over 0.5 hits-243DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 10:08 PM EDT · result loss
Alec Bohm over 0.5 hits-201DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 10:08 PM EDT · result win
A.J. Ewing over 0.5 hits-192DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 10:08 PM EDT · result loss
Bo Bichette under 1.5 hits-246DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 10:08 PM EDT · result win
Carson Benge over 0.5 hits-214DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 10:08 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Bryce Harper over 0.5 hits
PHI · 1B
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -200
Bryce Harper has averaged 1.4 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-200), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Bryce Harper 3 hits
Luis Arraez over 0.5 hits
PHI · 2B
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -243
Luis Arraez has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-243), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Luis Arraez 0 hits
Alec Bohm over 0.5 hits
PHI · 3B
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -201
Alec Bohm has averaged 1.1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-201), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Alec Bohm 1 hits
A.J. Ewing over 0.5 hits
NYM · CF
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -192
A.J. Ewing has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-192), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: A.J. Ewing 0 hits
Bo Bichette under 1.5 hits
NYM · 3B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -246
Bo Bichette has averaged 1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-246), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Bo Bichette 1 hits
Carson Benge over 0.5 hits
NYM · RF
We project 0.8Recent average 0.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -214
Carson Benge has averaged 0.8 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-214), and our model projects 0.8 — 0.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Carson Benge 1 hits