Post-game analysisMLBSunday, September 13, 2026Final

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026

The pick

Take Philadelphia Phillies +1.5

Philadelphia Phillies is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 12, 2026 · 5:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

The betting line

ATL -1.5

Sportsbooks make Atlanta Braves the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 9.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 1:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Philadelphia Phillies logo Philadelphia Phillies5

Atlanta Braves logo Atlanta Braves4

Final score

Philadelphia Phillies logo Philadelphia Phillies9

Atlanta Braves logo Atlanta Braves4

Pick covered

ESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV, BravesVision — Local availability can differ.

How the model got here

Model projects 5–4, a -0.5 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 2-point edge toward the road side. Based on 24 and 23 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take Philadelphia Phillies +1.5

DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Sat, 5:06 PM EDT
Locked price -182
Rating high
Locked Sep 12, 5:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
Result win

Players

Alec Bohm over 0.5 hits-222DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 13, 12:06 AM EDT · result win
Mauricio Dubon over 0.5 hits-234DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 13, 12:06 AM EDT · result win
Ronald Acuna Jr. over 0.5 hits-260DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 13, 12:06 AM EDT · result win
Drake Baldwin over 0.5 hits-253DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 13, 12:06 AM EDT · result win
Bryce Harper over 0.5 hits-223DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 13, 12:06 AM EDT · result win
Luis Arraez over 0.5 hits-244DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 13, 12:06 AM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Alec Bohm over 0.5 hits
PHI · 3B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -222
Alec Bohm has averaged 1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-222), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Alec Bohm 2 hits
Mauricio Dubon over 0.5 hits
ATL · LF
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -234
Mauricio Dubon has averaged 1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-234), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Mauricio Dubon 3 hits
Ronald Acuna Jr. over 0.5 hits
ATL · RF
We project 1.8Recent average 1.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -260
Ronald Acuna Jr. has averaged 1.8 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-260), and our model projects 1.8 — 1.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Ronald Acuna Jr. 2 hits
Drake Baldwin over 0.5 hits
ATL · C
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -253
Drake Baldwin has averaged 1.4 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-253), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Drake Baldwin 1 hits
Bryce Harper over 0.5 hits
PHI · 1B
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -223
Bryce Harper has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-223), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Bryce Harper 2 hits
Luis Arraez over 0.5 hits
PHI · 2B
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -244
Luis Arraez has averaged 1.1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-244), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Luis Arraez 0 hits