Post-game analysisMLBSunday, September 20, 2026Final

New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 20, 2026

The pick

Take Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5

Arizona Diamondbacks is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 19, 2026 · 5:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

The betting line

ARI -1.5

Sportsbooks make Arizona Diamondbacks the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8

DraftKings · updated Sun, 4:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

New York Yankees logo New York Yankees5

Arizona Diamondbacks logo Arizona Diamondbacks4

Final score

New York Yankees logo New York Yankees4

Arizona Diamondbacks logo Arizona Diamondbacks8

Pick covered

MLB.TV, DBACKS.TV, YES — Local availability can differ.

How the model got here

Model projects 5–4, a -1 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 0.46-point edge toward the home side. Based on 29 and 29 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Ben Rice over 0.5 hits-205DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 20, 3:07 PM EDT · result loss
Corbin Carroll over 0.5 hits-189DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 20, 3:07 PM EDT · result win
Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits-235DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 20, 3:07 PM EDT · result win
Spencer Jones over 0.5 hits-142DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 20, 3:07 PM EDT · result win
Geraldo Perdomo over 0.5 hits-176DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 20, 3:07 PM EDT · result win
Nolan Arenado over 0.5 hits-159DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 20, 3:07 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Ben Rice over 0.5 hits
NYY · DH
We project 1.6Recent average 1.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -205
Ben Rice has averaged 1.6 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-205), and our model projects 1.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ben Rice 0 hits
Corbin Carroll over 0.5 hits
ARI · RF
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -189
Corbin Carroll has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-189), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Corbin Carroll 1 hits
Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits
NYY · LF
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -235
Cody Bellinger has averaged 1.4 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-235), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Cody Bellinger 1 hits
Spencer Jones over 0.5 hits
NYY · RF
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -142
Spencer Jones has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-142), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Spencer Jones 1 hits
Geraldo Perdomo over 0.5 hits
ARI · SS
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -176
Geraldo Perdomo has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-176), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Geraldo Perdomo 2 hits
Nolan Arenado over 0.5 hits
ARI · 3B
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -159
Nolan Arenado has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-159), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Nolan Arenado 1 hits