Post-game analysisMLBFriday, September 18, 2026Final

New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks

Post-game analysis · Friday, September 18, 2026

The pick

Take Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5

Arizona Diamondbacks is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 17, 2026 · 4:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

The betting line

NYY -1.5

Sportsbooks make New York Yankees the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 7.5

DraftKings · updated Fri, 9:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

New York Yankees logo New York Yankees5

Arizona Diamondbacks logo Arizona Diamondbacks4

Final score

New York Yankees logo New York Yankees9

Arizona Diamondbacks logo Arizona Diamondbacks2

Pick missed

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Post-game analysis · Sep 18, 2026

Post-game: Yankees Pull Away from Diamondbacks in 9-2 Win

On Friday, September 18, 2026, the New York Yankees pulled away for a 9–2 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Our medium-rated model backed Arizona on the tracked DraftKings spread of +1.5, but the Diamondbacks failed to keep pace, resulting in a clear loss against the number.

The model anticipated a tightly contested game, projecting a 5–4 New York win. While it correctly leaned toward the Yankees as the outright winner, it significantly underestimated the gap between the two teams on the field. New York easily exceeded its scoring projection, while Arizona’s lineup managed just two runs and never threatened to mount a late rally.

Relying on a 28-game sample of recent scoring form, our projection identified a modest edge on the home underdog catching a run and a half. Instead, Arizona's pitching struggled to contain New York's bats, and the offense could not provide the expected run support. It was a miss on the margin, with game dynamics quickly slipping well outside the model's expected range.

How the model got here

Model projects 5–4, a -0.9 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 0.64-point edge toward the home side. Based on 28 and 28 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Ben Rice over 0.5 hits-250DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 3:07 AM EDT · result win
Spencer Jones over 0.5 hits-205DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 3:07 AM EDT · result loss
Gabriel Moreno over 0.5 hits-229DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 3:07 AM EDT · result loss
Amed Rosario over 0.5 hits-194DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 3:07 AM EDT · result win
Lars Nootbaar over 0.5 hits-188DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 3:07 AM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Ketel Marte over 0.5 hits
ARI · 2B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -225
Ketel Marte has averaged 1 hits over 5 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-225), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ketel Marte 0 hits
Ben Rice over 0.5 hits
NYY · DH
We project 1.5Recent average 1.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -250
Ben Rice has averaged 1.5 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-250), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Ben Rice 2 hits
Spencer Jones over 0.5 hits
NYY · RF
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -205
Spencer Jones has averaged 1.1 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-205), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Spencer Jones 0 hits
Gabriel Moreno over 0.5 hits
ARI · C
We project 1Recent average 1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -229
Gabriel Moreno has averaged 1 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-229), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Gabriel Moreno 0 hits
Amed Rosario over 0.5 hits
NYY · 3B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -194
Amed Rosario has averaged 1 hits over 8 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-194), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Amed Rosario 1 hits
Lars Nootbaar over 0.5 hits
ARI · DH
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -188
Lars Nootbaar has averaged 0.9 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-188), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Lars Nootbaar 0 hits