New York Mets at Texas Rangers
Post-game analysis · Thursday, September 24, 2026
The pick
Take Texas Rangers +1.5
Texas Rangers is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 23, 2026 · 1:08 AM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
NYM -1.5
Sportsbooks make New York Mets the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 5.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 10:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
New York Mets4
Texas Rangers5
Final score
New York Mets1
Texas Rangers3
Pick covered
MLB.TV, Rangers Sports Network, SNY — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 24, 2026
Post-game: Rangers Top Mets to Secure Spread Cover
On Thursday, September 24, 2026, the Texas Rangers defeated the New York Mets 3-1. With our statistical model issuing a high-rated pick on Texas at +1.5, the outright victory comfortably delivered a win against the tracked spread.
The model correctly identified value on the home side, projecting a tight Texas victory and backing the Rangers to outperform the original market number. Texas’s run prevention did the heavy lifting, holding New York to a single run and ensuring the +1.5 insurance was never challenged.
Where the projection proved inaccurate was the scoring environment. The model anticipated a livelier 5-4 matchup, but both lineups fell short of those offensive expectations on a 5.5-run total. Even with the lower-than-projected run totals, our directional edge on Texas was sound, logging a clean result for the model's tracked slate.
Matchup preview · Sep 24, 2026
Preview: New York Mets at Texas Rangers Odds and Projection
The Texas Rangers host the New York Mets on Thursday, with our statistical model projecting a competitive, slightly higher-scoring contest than market expectations. Evaluating 32 games of recent scoring form for both clubs, the model forecasts a 5–4 victory for Texas, pointing to nine combined runs against a market total of 7.5.
When we logged this matchup, the tracked DraftKings spread sat at Texas +1.5, though the line has since shifted to Rangers -1.5. Our projection gives Texas a clear edge to win outright. Evaluating our projected margin against the moving market translates to a 1.78-point statistical edge favoring the home side.
Because the model projects Texas to win outright, backing the Rangers at the +1.5 number we took earns a high model rating. That tracked run line covers either an outright Texas victory or a one-run defeat. While statistical models reflect baseline probabilities rather than certain outcomes, the data indicates meaningful value on the Rangers at home.
How the model got here
Model projects 4–5, a 0.3 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 1.78-point edge toward the home side. Based on 32 and 32 games of scoring form.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take Texas Rangers +1.5
- DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Wed, 12:43 AM EDT
- Locked price -195
- Rating high
- Locked Sep 23, 1:08 AM EDT — before kickoff
- Result win
Players
- Ezequiel Duran over 0.5 hits-180DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:18 PM EDT · result loss
- Brandon Nimmo over 0.5 hits-180DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:18 PM EDT · result loss
- Bo Bichette over 0.5 hits-170DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:18 PM EDT · result loss
- Jake Burger over 0.5 hits-150DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:18 PM EDT · result loss
- A.J. Ewing over 0.5 hits-155DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:18 PM EDT · result loss
- Carson Benge over 0.5 hits-205DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:18 PM EDT · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- TEX · SS
Ezequiel Duran over 0.5 hits
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -180Ezequiel Duran has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-180), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ezequiel Duran 0 hits
- TEX · RF
Brandon Nimmo over 0.5 hits
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -180Brandon Nimmo has averaged 1 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-180), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Brandon Nimmo 0 hits
- NYM · 3B
Bo Bichette over 0.5 hits
We project 1Recent average 1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -170Bo Bichette has averaged 1 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-170), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Bo Bichette 0 hits
- TEX · 1B
Jake Burger over 0.5 hits
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -150Jake Burger has averaged 1 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-150), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jake Burger 0 hits
- NYM · CF
A.J. Ewing over 0.5 hits
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -155A.J. Ewing has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-155), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: A.J. Ewing 0 hits
- NYM · RF
Carson Benge over 0.5 hits
We project 0.8Recent average 0.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -205Carson Benge has averaged 0.8 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-205), and our model projects 0.8 — 0.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Carson Benge 1 hits
Records & form
How our picks have graded in MLB, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our MLB record
107-68
61.1% of graded picks covered
Road team
New York Mets
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all New York Mets picks & results
Home team
Texas Rangers
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Texas Rangers picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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