Post-game analysisMLBSunday, September 13, 2026Final

New York Mets at New York Yankees

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026

The pick

Take New York Mets +1.5

New York Mets is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 12, 2026 · 5:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

The betting line

NYY -1.5

Sportsbooks make New York Yankees the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8

DraftKings · updated Sun, 1:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

New York Mets logo New York Mets4

New York Yankees logo New York Yankees5

Final score

New York Mets logo New York Mets0

New York Yankees logo New York Yankees2

Pick missed

MLB.TV, YES, SNY — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 13, 2026

Preview: New York Mets at New York Yankees

The Subway Series continues Sunday in the Bronx as the New York Mets take on the New York Yankees. With the market total listed at 7.5 runs, our statistical model analyzes recent team performance—drawing on 24 games of scoring form for the Mets and 23 games for the Yankees—to project the expected output for this cross-town clash.

The model forecasts a 5–4 victory for the Yankees. While that projection leans toward an outright home win, the expected margin of defeat is only 0.6 runs. That creates a noticeable discrepancy against the +1.5 run line we took for the Mets, providing an estimated 0.89-point edge in favor of the visiting side.

Given that edge, our system assigns a high rating to the New York Mets at +1.5. Model projections reflect probability distributions rather than certain outcomes, particularly in baseball where single-game variance is inherent, but the data points to the Mets keeping this contest within the tracked spread.

How the model got here

Model projects 4–5, a 0.6 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 0.89-point edge toward the road side. Based on 24 and 23 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take New York Mets +1.5

DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Sat, 5:06 PM EDT
Locked price -143
Rating high
Locked Sep 12, 5:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
Result loss

Players

Ben Rice over 0.5 hits-202DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 12, 10:22 PM EDT · result win
Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits-201DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 12, 10:22 PM EDT · result loss
Spencer Jones over 0.5 hits-137DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 12, 10:22 PM EDT · result win
Bo Bichette over 0.5 hits-208DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 12, 10:22 PM EDT · result win
A.J. Ewing over 0.5 hits-121DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 12, 10:22 PM EDT · result loss
Carson Benge over 0.5 hits-158DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 12, 10:22 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Ben Rice over 0.5 hits
NYY · DH
We project 1.5Recent average 1.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -202
Ben Rice has averaged 1.5 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-202), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Ben Rice 1 hits
Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits
NYY · LF
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -201
Cody Bellinger has averaged 1.4 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-201), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Cody Bellinger 0 hits
Spencer Jones over 0.5 hits
NYY · RF
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -137
Spencer Jones has averaged 1.1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-137), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Spencer Jones 1 hits
Bo Bichette over 0.5 hits
NYM · 3B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -208
Bo Bichette has averaged 1 hits over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-208), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Bo Bichette 1 hits
A.J. Ewing over 0.5 hits
NYM · CF
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -121
A.J. Ewing has averaged 0.9 hits over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-121), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: A.J. Ewing 0 hits
Carson Benge over 0.5 hits
NYM · RF
We project 0.8Recent average 0.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -158
Carson Benge has averaged 0.8 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-158), and our model projects 0.8 — 0.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Carson Benge 0 hits