Post-game analysisMLBSaturday, September 12, 2026Final

New York Mets at New York Yankees

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 12, 2026

The pick

Take New York Mets +1.5

New York Mets is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 11, 2026 · 4:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

The betting line

NYY -1.5

Sportsbooks make New York Yankees the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8

DraftKings · updated Sat, 1:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

New York Mets logo New York Mets4

New York Yankees logo New York Yankees5

Final score

New York Mets logo New York Mets12

New York Yankees logo New York Yankees2

Pick covered

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Matchup preview · Sep 12, 2026

Preview: New York Mets at New York Yankees

The Subway Series continues Saturday in the Bronx as the New York Mets visit the New York Yankees. Our statistical model projects a tightly contested matchup, forecasting a 5–4 victory for the Yankees. That combined projection aligns closely with the game's posted total of 8 runs.

On the run line, we took the Mets at +1.5 on the tracked DraftKings spread. With the model anticipating a one-run margin of defeat, the projection keeps the road underdogs inside the number. That output represents a 0.55-point statistical edge toward the Mets relative to the market line.

This projection carries a medium rating, drawing on recent scoring form across 22 games for the Mets and 21 games for the Yankees. While everyday baseball variance means outcomes are never certain, the underlying data indicates the Mets have a solid statistical case to keep this rivalry game within a single run.

How the model got here

Model projects 4–5, a 1 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 0.55-point edge toward the road side. Based on 22 and 21 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Ben Rice over 0.5 hits-209DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 11:07 PM EDT · result pending
Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits-266DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 11:07 PM EDT · result win
Bo Bichette over 0.5 hits-199DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 11:07 PM EDT · result loss
Amed Rosario over 0.5 hits-164DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 11:07 PM EDT · result loss
A.J. Ewing over 0.5 hits-136DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 11:07 PM EDT · result loss
Carson Benge over 0.5 hits-177DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 11:07 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Ben Rice over 0.5 hits
NYY · DH
We project 1.5Recent average 1.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -209
Ben Rice has averaged 1.5 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-209), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits
NYY · LF
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -266
Cody Bellinger has averaged 1.4 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-266), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Cody Bellinger 2 hits
Bo Bichette over 0.5 hits
NYM · 3B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -199
Bo Bichette has averaged 1 hits over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-199), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Bo Bichette 0 hits
Amed Rosario over 0.5 hits
NYY · 3B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -164
Amed Rosario has averaged 1 hits over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-164), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Amed Rosario 0 hits
A.J. Ewing over 0.5 hits
NYM · CF
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -136
A.J. Ewing has averaged 0.9 hits over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-136), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: A.J. Ewing 0 hits
Carson Benge over 0.5 hits
NYM · RF
We project 0.8Recent average 0.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -177
Carson Benge has averaged 0.8 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-177), and our model projects 0.8 — 0.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Carson Benge 2 hits