Post-game analysisMLBThursday, September 17, 2026Final

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Post-game analysis · Thursday, September 17, 2026

The pick

Take Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5

Pittsburgh Pirates is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points. The live market is no longer posted, so this pick stands on the +1.5 number locked before kickoff.

Pick locked in: Sep 16, 2026 · 7:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

PIT +1.5

The live sportsbook market is no longer posted. This is the number our pick was locked against before kickoff.

DraftKings

Our projected score

Milwaukee Brewers logo Milwaukee Brewers5

Pittsburgh Pirates logo Pittsburgh Pirates4

Final score

Milwaukee Brewers logo Milwaukee Brewers4

Pittsburgh Pirates logo Pittsburgh Pirates7

Pick covered

MLB.TV, Brewers.TV — Local availability can differ.

How the model got here

Model projects 5–4, a -1.3 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 0.2-point edge toward the home side. Based on 25 and 26 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

William Contreras over 0.5 hits-185DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 7:19 PM EDT · result pending
Bryan Reynolds over 0.5 hits-110DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 7:19 PM EDT · result win
Brandon Lowe over 0.5 hits-105DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 7:19 PM EDT · result win
Jackson Chourio over 0.5 hits-185DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 7:19 PM EDT · result loss
Jackson Chourio over 0.5 runs scored+130DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 7:19 PM EDT · result loss
Oneil Cruz over 0.5 hits-110DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 7:19 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

William Contreras over 0.5 hits
MIL · C
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -185
William Contreras has averaged 1.2 hits over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-185), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
Still qualifies at the current line. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Bryan Reynolds over 0.5 hits
PIT · LF
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110
Bryan Reynolds has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-110), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Bryan Reynolds 1 hits
Brandon Lowe over 0.5 hits
PIT · 2B
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -105
Brandon Lowe has averaged 1.2 hits over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-105), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Brandon Lowe 1 hits
Jackson Chourio over 0.5 hits
MIL · LF
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -185
Jackson Chourio has averaged 1.1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-185), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jackson Chourio 0 hits
Jackson Chourio over 0.5 runs scored
MIL · LF
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +130
Jackson Chourio has averaged 1.1 runs scored over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+130), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jackson Chourio 0 runs scored
Oneil Cruz over 0.5 hits
PIT · CF
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110
Oneil Cruz has averaged 1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-110), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Oneil Cruz 1 hits