Post-game analysisMLBTuesday, September 15, 2026Final

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Post-game analysis · Tuesday, September 15, 2026

The pick

Take Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5

Pittsburgh Pirates is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 14, 2026 · 7:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

MIL -1.5

Sportsbooks make Milwaukee Brewers the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 7.5

DraftKings · updated Tue, 6:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Milwaukee Brewers logo Milwaukee Brewers5

Pittsburgh Pirates logo Pittsburgh Pirates4

Final score

Milwaukee Brewers logo Milwaukee Brewers5

Pittsburgh Pirates logo Pittsburgh Pirates1

Pick missed

MLB.TV, Brewers.TV — Local availability can differ.

How the model got here

Model projects 5–4, a -1.2 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 0.29-point edge toward the home side. Based on 24 and 25 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

William Contreras over 0.5 hits-230DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 14, 11:07 PM EDT · result win
Oneil Cruz over 0.5 hits-131DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 14, 11:07 PM EDT · result loss
Brice Turang over 0.5 hits-244DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 14, 11:07 PM EDT · result loss
Christian Yelich over 0.5 hits-229DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 14, 11:07 PM EDT · result loss
Bryan Reynolds over 0.5 hits-154DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 14, 11:07 PM EDT · result loss
Brandon Lowe over 0.5 hits-138DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 14, 11:07 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

William Contreras over 0.5 hits
MIL · C
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -230
William Contreras has averaged 1.2 hits over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-230), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: William Contreras 1 hits
Oneil Cruz over 0.5 hits
PIT · CF
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -131
Oneil Cruz has averaged 1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-131), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Oneil Cruz 0 hits
Brice Turang over 0.5 hits
MIL · 2B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -244
Brice Turang has averaged 1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-244), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Brice Turang 0 hits
Christian Yelich over 0.5 hits
MIL · DH
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -229
Christian Yelich has averaged 1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-229), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Christian Yelich 0 hits
Bryan Reynolds over 0.5 hits
PIT · LF
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -154
Bryan Reynolds has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-154), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Bryan Reynolds 0 hits
Brandon Lowe over 0.5 hits
PIT · 2B
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -138
Brandon Lowe has averaged 1.2 hits over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-138), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Brandon Lowe 1 hits