Post-game analysisMLBSunday, September 20, 2026Final

Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 20, 2026

The pick

Take Miami Marlins +1.5

Miami Marlins is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 19, 2026 · 6:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

The betting line

SD -1.5

Sportsbooks make San Diego Padres the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8

DraftKings · updated Sun, 4:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Miami Marlins logo Miami Marlins4

San Diego Padres logo San Diego Padres5

Final score

Miami Marlins logo Miami Marlins3

San Diego Padres logo San Diego Padres7

Pick missed

ESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV, Padres.TV — Local availability can differ.

How the model got here

Model projects 4–5, a 0.9 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 0.61-point edge toward the road side. Based on 29 and 29 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Manny Machado over 0.5 hits-234DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 20, 3:18 PM EDT · result loss
Javier Sanoja over 0.5 hits-215DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 20, 3:18 PM EDT · result win
Ty France over 0.5 hits-237DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 20, 3:18 PM EDT · result loss
Kyle Stowers over 0.5 hits-208DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 20, 3:18 PM EDT · result win
Ty France over 0.5 RBIs+174DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 20, 3:18 PM EDT · result loss
Otto Lopez over 0.5 hits-262DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 20, 3:18 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Manny Machado over 0.5 hits
SD · 3B
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -234
Manny Machado has averaged 1.2 hits over 8 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-234), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Manny Machado 0 hits
Javier Sanoja over 0.5 hits
MIA · 3B
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -215
Javier Sanoja has averaged 1.4 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-215), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Javier Sanoja 1 hits
Ty France over 0.5 hits
SD · 1B
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -237
Ty France has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-237), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ty France 0 hits
Kyle Stowers over 0.5 hits
MIA · 1B
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -208
Kyle Stowers has averaged 1.1 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-208), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Kyle Stowers 1 hits
Ty France over 0.5 RBIs
SD · 1B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +174
Ty France has averaged 1 RBIs over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+174), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ty France 0 RBIs
Otto Lopez over 0.5 hits
MIA · SS
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -262
Otto Lopez has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-262), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Otto Lopez 0 hits