Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins
Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026
The pick
Take Miami Marlins +1.5
Miami Marlins is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points. The live market is no longer posted, so this pick stands on the +1.5 number locked before kickoff.
Pick locked in: Sep 12, 2026 · 2:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
MIA +1.5
The live sportsbook market is no longer posted. This is the number our pick was locked against before kickoff.
DraftKings
Our projected score
Los Angeles Dodgers5
Miami Marlins4
Final score
Los Angeles Dodgers4
Miami Marlins6
Pick covered
MLB.TV, SportsNet LA, Marlins.TV — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Sep 13, 2026
Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins
The Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Miami Marlins on Sunday afternoon in a matchup our statistical model expects to be tightly contested. The projection estimates a 5–4 victory for the Dodgers, matching the market's total of 8 runs while pointing toward a one-run game.
Although Los Angeles holds the projected edge on the scoreboard, the run line presents the statistical opportunity. We took the Marlins at +1.5 when tracking opened. With our model estimating a 0.7-run margin of defeat, Miami holds a 0.77-run edge to stay within the 1.5-run cushion and cover.
Our system assigns this pick a high rating, drawing on recent scoring form across 23 games for the Dodgers and 22 games for the Marlins. While baseball margins always carry inherent variance, the data suggests the Marlins are well-positioned to keep this contest within a single run.
How the model got here
Model projects 5–4, a -0.7 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 0.77-point edge toward the home side. Based on 23 and 22 games of scoring form.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take Miami Marlins +1.5
- DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Sat, 1:07 PM EDT
- Locked price -119
- Rating high
- Locked Sep 12, 2:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
- Result win
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
No player prop angles for this matchup yet. Our stat lines need a few completed games of form for each player before we publish a number, so early-season MLB games fill in as the season goes on. Check back closer to kickoff.
Records & form
How our picks have graded in MLB, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our MLB record
107-68
61.1% of graded picks covered
Road team
Los Angeles Dodgers
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Los Angeles Dodgers picks & results
Home team
Miami Marlins
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Miami Marlins picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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