Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins
Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 12, 2026
The pick
Take Miami Marlins +1.5
Miami Marlins is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points. The live market is no longer posted, so this pick stands on the +1.5 number locked before kickoff.
Pick locked in: Sep 11, 2026 · 9:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
MIA +1.5
The live sportsbook market is no longer posted. This is the number our pick was locked against before kickoff.
DraftKings
Our projected score
Los Angeles Dodgers5
Miami Marlins4
Final score
Los Angeles Dodgers3
Miami Marlins4
Pick covered
MLB.TV, SportsNet LA, Marlins.TV — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Sep 12, 2026
Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins
The Los Angeles Dodgers head to Miami on Saturday for an evening matchup against the Marlins. Our statistical model projects a closely contested game, forecasting a 5–4 Dodgers victory based on recent scoring form across 22 games for Los Angeles and 21 games for Miami.
The spread we took at publish time was Miami +1.5 via DraftKings. Because the model anticipates Los Angeles edging out a single-run victory—a projected 0.6-run margin—it identifies a 0.89-point statistical edge toward the home side staying within that number.
As a result, the model backs the Miami Marlins +1.5 as our pick, assigning it a high rating. While individual baseball games inherently carry variance that no model can fully eliminate, the data points to value on the Marlins keeping the final score within the 1.5-run buffer.
How the model got here
Model projects 5–4, a -0.6 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 0.89-point edge toward the home side. Based on 22 and 21 games of scoring form.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take Miami Marlins +1.5
- DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Fri, 9:07 PM EDT
- Locked price -120
- Rating high
- Locked Sep 11, 9:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
- Result win
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
No player prop angles for this matchup yet. Our stat lines need a few completed games of form for each player before we publish a number, so early-season MLB games fill in as the season goes on. Check back closer to kickoff.
Records & form
How our picks have graded in MLB, plus how both teams have actually played.
Today's games
- TOR at BALMLB · Mon, 6:35 PM EDTTOR -1.5 · projection only
- WSH at DETMLB · Mon, 6:40 PM EDTDET -1.5 · projection only
- NYR at NJNHL · Mon, 7:00 PM EDTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- PHI at WSHNHL · Mon, 7:00 PM EDTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- DET at CBJNHL · Mon, 7:00 PM EDTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BUF at PITNHL · Mon, 7:00 PM EDTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
Upcoming MLB games
- TOR at BALMLB · Mon, 6:35 PM EDTTOR -1.5 · projection only
- WSH at DETMLB · Mon, 6:40 PM EDTDET -1.5 · projection only
- MIN at SFMLB · Mon, 9:45 PM EDTMIN -1.5 · projection only
- TB at NYYMLB · Tue, 1:05 PM EDTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- TOR at BALMLB · Tue, 6:35 PM EDTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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