Post-game analysisMLBThursday, September 17, 2026Final

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds

Post-game analysis · Thursday, September 17, 2026

The pick

Take Cincinnati Reds +1.5

Cincinnati Reds is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points. The live market is no longer posted, so this pick stands on the +1.5 number locked before kickoff.

Pick locked in: Sep 16, 2026 · 7:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

CIN +1.5

The live sportsbook market is no longer posted. This is the number our pick was locked against before kickoff.

DraftKings

Our projected score

Los Angeles Dodgers logo Los Angeles Dodgers6

Cincinnati Reds logo Cincinnati Reds4

Final score

Los Angeles Dodgers logo Los Angeles Dodgers8

Cincinnati Reds logo Cincinnati Reds2

Pick missed

MLB.TV, SportsNet LA, Reds.TV — Local availability can differ.

How the model got here

Model projects 6–4, a -1.3 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 0.22-point edge toward the home side. Based on 28 and 26 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Elly De La Cruz under 2.5 RBIs-500DraftKings line 2.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:07 PM EDT · result win
Dane Myers over 0.5 runs scored+310DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:07 PM EDT · result loss
Dane Myers over 0.5 hits+145DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:07 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Elly De La Cruz under 2.5 RBIs
CIN · SS
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -500
Elly De La Cruz has averaged 1.1 RBIs over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-500), and our model projects 1.1 — 1.4 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Elly De La Cruz 0 RBIs
Dane Myers over 0.5 runs scored
CIN · CF
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +310
Dane Myers has averaged 1.1 runs scored over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+310), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Dane Myers 0 runs scored
Dane Myers over 0.5 hits
CIN · CF
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +145
Dane Myers has averaged 1.2 hits over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+145), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Dane Myers 0 hits

Records & form

How our picks have graded in MLB, plus how both teams have actually played.

Our MLB record

74-48

60.7% of graded picks covered

Road team

Los Angeles Dodgers

Record 6-2

Against the spread 3-1 (75%)

See all Los Angeles Dodgers picks & results

Home team

Cincinnati Reds

Record 3-5

Against the spread 2-3 (40%)

See all Cincinnati Reds picks & results

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