Post-game analysisMLBTuesday, September 8, 2026Final

Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees

Post-game analysis · Tuesday, September 8, 2026

The pick

Take Colorado Rockies +1.5

Colorado Rockies is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 7, 2026 · 7:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

NYY -1.5

Sportsbooks make New York Yankees the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 7.5

DraftKings · updated Tue, 6:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Colorado Rockies logo Colorado Rockies4

New York Yankees logo New York Yankees5

Final score

Colorado Rockies logo Colorado Rockies3

New York Yankees logo New York Yankees5

Pick missed

MLB.TV, Rockies.TV, YES — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Sep 8, 2026

Post-game: Yankees Top Rockies 5-3, Beating the Spread

On Tuesday, September 8, 2026, the New York Yankees defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-3 in the Bronx. We backed Colorado on the tracked DraftKings spread of +1.5, and the two-run final margin means our pick goes down as a loss.

The model came remarkably close to the actual game environment, having projected a 5-4 victory for New York. It correctly pegged the Yankees at five runs and anticipated a tightly contested matchup that stayed right around the betting total.

Where the projection fell short was expecting Colorado to do just enough at the plate to stay within a single run. We entered the game with a low model rating based on a razor-thin 0.15-point edge, which left virtually no room for error. Colorado managed only three runs instead of the projected four, turning a narrow cover scenario into a two-run defeat. Backing slim margins on road underdogs always carries risk, and this one failed to land.

Matchup preview · Sep 8, 2026

Preview: Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees

The New York Yankees host the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday night in the Bronx, with the game total set at 8 runs. When our model processed the matchup, the tracked spread sat with Colorado getting a run and a half, and we took the Rockies at +1.5.

Our statistical projection forecasts a tight contest ending in a 5–4 victory for New York. Built on a baseline of 19 games of recent scoring form for each club, the model calculates a projected margin of 1.4 runs. Compared to the 1.5-run market spread, that creates a narrow 0.15-point edge in favor of the road team staying within the number.

Because the modeled advantage is minimal, the system assigns a low rating to Colorado +1.5. These projections simply identify where baseline scoring data slightly diverges from the market rather than predicting absolute certainty. The simulation leans toward a one-run game that allows the Rockies to cover, though baseball variance is always substantial.

How the model got here

Model projects 4–5, a 1.4 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 0.15-point edge toward the road side. Based on 19 and 19 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Ben Rice over 0.5 hits-263DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 8, 12:07 AM EDT · result loss
Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits-243DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 8, 12:07 AM EDT · result win
Jake McCarthy over 0.5 hits-193DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 8, 12:07 AM EDT · result win
Cole Carrigg over 0.5 hits-136DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 8, 12:07 AM EDT · result loss
Spencer Jones over 0.5 hits-182DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 8, 12:07 AM EDT · result loss
Jake McCarthy over 0.5 runs scored+185DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 8, 6:07 AM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Ben Rice over 0.5 hits
NYY · DH
We project 1.5Recent average 1.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -263
Ben Rice has averaged 1.5 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-263), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ben Rice 0 hits
Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits
NYY · LF
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -243
Cody Bellinger has averaged 1.4 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-243), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Cody Bellinger 1 hits
Jake McCarthy over 0.5 hits
COL · LF
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -193
Jake McCarthy has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-193), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Jake McCarthy 1 hits
Cole Carrigg over 0.5 hits
COL · CF
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -136
Cole Carrigg has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-136), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Cole Carrigg 0 hits
Spencer Jones over 0.5 hits
NYY · RF
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -182
Spencer Jones has averaged 1.1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-182), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Spencer Jones 0 hits
Jake McCarthy over 0.5 runs scored
COL · LF
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +185
Jake McCarthy has averaged 0.9 runs scored over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+185), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jake McCarthy 0 runs scored