Post-game analysisMLBFriday, September 11, 2026Final

Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers

Post-game analysis · Friday, September 11, 2026

The pick

Take Colorado Rockies +1.5

Colorado Rockies is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 10, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

The betting line

DET -1.5

Sportsbooks make Detroit Tigers the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8

DraftKings · updated Fri, 6:06 PM EDT

Our projected score

Colorado Rockies logo Colorado Rockies4

Detroit Tigers logo Detroit Tigers5

Final score

Colorado Rockies logo Colorado Rockies2

Detroit Tigers logo Detroit Tigers6

Pick missed

MLB.TV, Rockies.TV, Tigers.TV — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Sep 11, 2026

Post-game: Rockies fall to Tigers 6-2, missing +1.5 cover

On Friday, September 11, 2026, the Detroit Tigers pulled away from the Colorado Rockies for a 6-2 victory. The four-run deficit meant Colorado failed to cover the +1.5 run line, resulting in a graded loss for our high-rated recommendation.

The statistical model was directionally accurate in calling a Detroit victory, forecasting a 5-4 win for the home side. Based on recent scoring form across roughly three weeks of play, the projection anticipated a tight contest and found a 1.28-point edge on the Rockies staying within a single run.

Instead, Colorado's offense fell well short of expectations. The Rockies generated only two runs, leaving little margin for error as Detroit steadily built a multi-run cushion and pulled away. The model counted on Colorado keeping the final innings competitive, but the lack of run support made this an unequivocal loss against our tracked number.

Matchup preview · Sep 11, 2026

Preview: Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers Run Line Edge

The Colorado Rockies travel to Detroit on Friday night to face the Tigers with the game total set at 8. Our statistical model projects a close contest, forecasting a narrow 5–4 victory for Detroit. While the Tigers carry the straight-up advantage at home, the simulated run differential points toward a tight finish.

When we logged the board, the tracked spread sat with Colorado at +1.5 on DraftKings. Comparing that 1.5-run cushion against our projected one-run margin yields a 1.28-point statistical edge toward the road underdog. Powered by recent scoring inputs across 22 games for Colorado and 21 for Detroit, the model gives Colorado covering the run line a high rating.

As with any statistical projection, these outputs represent mathematical distributions based on recent team form rather than guaranteed results. However, with the baseline projection landing on a one-run margin, taking Colorado at +1.5 reflects a clear edge at our tracked number.

How the model got here

Model projects 4–5, a 0.2 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 1.28-point edge toward the road side. Based on 22 and 21 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take Colorado Rockies +1.5

DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Thu, 8:07 PM EDT
Locked price -149
Rating high
Locked Sep 10, 8:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
Result loss

Players

TJ Rumfield over 0.5 hits-171DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 8:07 AM EDT · result pending
Jake McCarthy over 0.5 hits-237DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 11, 8:07 AM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Riley Greene over 0.5 RBIs
DET · LF
We project 1.7Recent average 1.7 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +137
Riley Greene has averaged 1.7 RBIs over 5 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+137), and our model projects 1.7 — 1.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Riley Greene 2 RBIs
Riley Greene over 0.5 hits
DET · LF
We project 1.6Recent average 1.6 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -213
Riley Greene has averaged 1.6 hits over 5 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-213), and our model projects 1.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Riley Greene 3 hits
Adael Amador over 0.5 hits
COL · 2B
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -129
Adael Amador has averaged 1.3 hits over 5 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-129), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Adael Amador 1 hits
Framber Valdez under 4.5 strikeouts
DET · SP
We project 3.9Recent average 3.9 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +125
Framber Valdez has averaged 3.9 strikeouts over 2 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (+125), and our model projects 3.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Framber Valdez 2 strikeouts
TJ Rumfield over 0.5 hits
COL · 1B
We project 1.7Recent average 1.7 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -171
TJ Rumfield has averaged 1.7 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-171), and our model projects 1.7 — 1.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
Jake McCarthy over 0.5 hits
COL · LF
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -237
Jake McCarthy has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-237), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Jake McCarthy 3 hits