Post-game analysisMLBWednesday, September 9, 2026Final

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers

Post-game analysis · Wednesday, September 9, 2026

The pick

Take Cincinnati Reds +1.5

Cincinnati Reds is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 8, 2026 · 11:07 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

The betting line

LAD -1.5

Sportsbooks make Los Angeles Dodgers the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8

DraftKings · updated Wed, 10:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Cincinnati Reds logo Cincinnati Reds4

Los Angeles Dodgers logo Los Angeles Dodgers5

Final score

Cincinnati Reds logo Cincinnati Reds1

Los Angeles Dodgers logo Los Angeles Dodgers14

Pick missed

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Post-game analysis · Sep 9, 2026

Post-game: Dodgers rout Reds as our Cincinnati pick misses

On Wednesday, September 9, 2026, the Cincinnati Reds suffered a brutal 14-1 blowout defeat against the Los Angeles Dodgers, failing to cover our tracked +1.5 run line. It was an unequivocal loss for the model, which had backed Cincinnati to keep the contest competitive at Dodger Stadium.

Entering the game, our model projected a tightly contested 5-4 outcome, identifying a 0.61-run edge on the +1.5 market number from roughly three weeks of scoring data. That expectation evaporated quickly. Los Angeles overwhelmed Cincinnati's pitching staff from the jump, while the Reds managed just a single run all evening.

There is no sugarcoating a 13-run margin. The model clearly misjudged the risk profile, failing to capture the Dodgers' explosive offensive ceiling and the potential for a complete breakdown on the mound. It goes down as a decisive loss on the board, and we will incorporate the data into our future projections.

Matchup preview · Sep 9, 2026

Preview: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday night in an intriguing matchup. Our statistical model projects a tight contest at Dodger Stadium, forecasting a 5-4 victory for Los Angeles. That projected combined output sits right alongside the market total of 8.5.

Although the Dodgers are favored to win outright, the expected one-run gap points toward value on the run line. We took the tracked DraftKings spread of Cincinnati +1.5. The model's projected 0.9-run margin yields a 0.61-point statistical edge toward the road underdog covering the spread. This projection incorporates 19 games of recent scoring form for the Reds and 21 games for Los Angeles.

As a result, the model assigns a medium rating to Cincinnati +1.5. While no single projection carries certainty in a sport with as much day-to-day variance as baseball, the underlying scoring distributions suggest the Reds are positioned well to keep the final margin within the 1.5-run cushion.

How the model got here

Model projects 4–5, a 0.9 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 0.61-point edge toward the road side. Based on 19 and 21 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Elly De La Cruz over 0.5 hits-164DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 9, 4:07 AM EDT · result win
Hector Rodriguez over 0.5 hits-181DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 9, 4:07 AM EDT · result loss
Teoscar Hernandez over 0.5 hits-203DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 9, 4:07 AM EDT · result win
Sal Stewart over 0.5 hits-202DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 9, 4:07 AM EDT · result win
Tommy Edman over 0.5 hits-223DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 9, 4:07 AM EDT · result loss
Freddie Freeman over 0.5 hits-274DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 9, 4:07 AM EDT · result pending

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Elly De La Cruz over 0.5 hits
CIN · SS
We project 1.8Recent average 1.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -164
Elly De La Cruz has averaged 1.8 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-164), and our model projects 1.8 — 1.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Elly De La Cruz 1 hits
Hector Rodriguez over 0.5 hits
CIN · RF
We project 1.6Recent average 1.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -181
Hector Rodriguez has averaged 1.6 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-181), and our model projects 1.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Hector Rodriguez 0 hits
Teoscar Hernandez over 0.5 hits
LAD · LF
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -203
Teoscar Hernandez has averaged 1.4 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-203), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Teoscar Hernandez 2 hits
Sal Stewart over 0.5 hits
CIN · 1B
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -202
Sal Stewart has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-202), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Sal Stewart 2 hits
Tommy Edman over 0.5 hits
LAD · 2B
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -223
Tommy Edman has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-223), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Tommy Edman 0 hits
Freddie Freeman over 0.5 hits
LAD · 1B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -274
Freddie Freeman has averaged 1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-274), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.