Post-game analysisMLBMonday, September 7, 2026Final

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers

Post-game analysis · Monday, September 7, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

CIN 6 – LAD 5

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: high

The betting line

LAD -1.5

Sportsbooks make Los Angeles Dodgers the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8.5

DraftKings · updated Mon, 9:06 PM EDT

Our projected score

Cincinnati Reds logo Cincinnati Reds6

Los Angeles Dodgers logo Los Angeles Dodgers5

Projected result cannot end level in this league, so this display score includes projected extra innings. Our stored projection is unchanged.

Final score

Cincinnati Reds logo Cincinnati Reds3

Los Angeles Dodgers logo Los Angeles Dodgers6

Pick missed

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Post-game analysis · Sep 7, 2026

Post-game: Dodgers pull away from Reds to beat our spread

On Monday, September 7, 2026, the Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Cincinnati Reds 6-3, failing to deliver on our high-rated pick for Cincinnati to cover the +1.5 run line. Our model had leaned heavily toward the road underdog staying competitive, but Los Angeles controlled the later frames and cleared the 1.5-run margin with room to spare.

The projection anticipated a 5–5 deadlock, which pegged the Dodgers' offensive output reasonably well as they plated six runs. However, the model significantly misjudged Cincinnati's run production. Forecasted to generate five runs based on a recent 17-game sample of scoring form, the Reds managed only three, never establishing the consistent pressure needed to stay within striking distance.

Relying on that short sample of offensive momentum proved overly optimistic against Los Angeles's pitching staff. When Cincinnati's bats cooled, the projection's anticipated edge disappeared, leaving the Reds well short of covering the spread. It goes down as a decisive miss for our tracked pick.

Matchup preview · Sep 7, 2026

Reds vs. Dodgers: Model Finds Edge on Cincinnati +1.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night, with the betting market setting Los Angeles as a 1.5-run favorite alongside an over/under total of 8 runs. While the market anticipates a multi-run victory for the home side, our analytical model projects a noticeably closer contest.

Evaluating recent scoring form across 17 games for Cincinnati and 20 games for Los Angeles, the simulation projects a 5.3 to 4.6 outcome in favor of the Dodgers. That translates to an expected margin of victory of just 0.7 runs. Comparing that projected gap against the market line of 1.5 runs creates an estimated 0.8-point edge toward the road underdog.

Because the projected differential falls well within the run line, the model assigns high confidence to the Cincinnati Reds covering at +1.5. Statistical models evaluate probability rather than certainty, but the data indicates the market has slightly overstated the Dodgers' expected margin of victory in this matchup.

How the model got here

Model projects 5–5, a 0.7 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 0.8-point edge toward the road side. Based on 17 and 20 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Chase Burns over 4.5 strikeouts
CIN · SP
We project 6Recent average 6.6 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -108
Chase Burns has averaged 6.6 strikeouts over 3 recent games, and the matchup is tough — they concede about 10% less than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-108), and our model projects 6 — 1.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Chase Burns 5 strikeouts
Elly De La Cruz over 0.5 hits
CIN · SS
We project 1.7Recent average 1.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -175
Elly De La Cruz has averaged 1.9 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is tough — they concede about 10% less than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-175), and our model projects 1.7 — 1.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Elly De La Cruz 2 hits
Mookie Betts over 0.5 hits
LAD · SS
We project 1.7Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -194
Mookie Betts has averaged 1.4 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-194), and our model projects 1.7 — 1.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
Mookie Betts over 0.5 RBIs
LAD · SS
We project 1.6Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +193
Mookie Betts has averaged 1.3 RBIs over 10 recent games, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+193), and our model projects 1.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
Teoscar Hernandez over 0.5 hits
LAD · LF
We project 1.5Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -160
Teoscar Hernandez has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-160), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Teoscar Hernandez 2 hits
Elly De La Cruz over 0.5 RBIs
CIN · SS
We project 1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +229
Elly De La Cruz has averaged 1.1 RBIs over 10 recent games, and the matchup is tough — they concede about 10% less than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (+229), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Elly De La Cruz 1 RBIs