Post-game analysisMLBFriday, September 18, 2026Final

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

Post-game analysis · Friday, September 18, 2026

The pick

Take Cincinnati Reds +1.5

Cincinnati Reds is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

CHC -1.5

Sportsbooks make Chicago Cubs the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8.5

DraftKings · updated Fri, 6:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Chicago Cubs logo Chicago Cubs6

Cincinnati Reds logo Cincinnati Reds5

Final score

Chicago Cubs logo Chicago Cubs4

Cincinnati Reds logo Cincinnati Reds6

Pick covered

MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Reds.TV — Local availability can differ.

How the model got here

Model projects 6–5, a -1.4 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 0.07-point edge toward the home side. Based on 30 and 28 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Elly De La Cruz over 0.5 hits-239DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 1:07 AM EDT · result win
Hector Rodriguez over 0.5 hits-184DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 1:07 AM EDT · result loss
Nico Hoerner over 0.5 hits-241DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 1:07 AM EDT · result win
Sal Stewart over 0.5 hits-215DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 1:07 AM EDT · result win
Pete Crow-Armstrong over 0.5 hits-268DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 1:07 AM EDT · result loss
Alex Bregman over 0.5 hits-207DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 1:07 AM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Elly De La Cruz over 0.5 hits
CIN · SS
We project 1.9Recent average 1.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -239
Elly De La Cruz has averaged 1.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-239), and our model projects 1.9 — 1.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Elly De La Cruz 2 hits
Hector Rodriguez over 0.5 hits
CIN · RF
We project 1.6Recent average 1.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -184
Hector Rodriguez has averaged 1.6 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-184), and our model projects 1.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Hector Rodriguez 0 hits
Nico Hoerner over 0.5 hits
CHC · 2B
We project 1.5Recent average 1.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -241
Nico Hoerner has averaged 1.5 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-241), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Nico Hoerner 1 hits
Sal Stewart over 0.5 hits
CIN · 1B
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -215
Sal Stewart has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-215), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Sal Stewart 1 hits
Pete Crow-Armstrong over 0.5 hits
CHC · CF
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -268
Pete Crow-Armstrong has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-268), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Pete Crow-Armstrong 0 hits
Alex Bregman over 0.5 hits
CHC · 3B
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -207
Alex Bregman has averaged 1.2 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-207), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Alex Bregman 0 hits