Post-game analysisMLBFriday, September 18, 2026Final

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Post-game analysis · Friday, September 18, 2026

The pick

Take Tampa Bay Rays +1.5

Tampa Bay Rays is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 17, 2026 · 4:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

The betting line

TB -1.5

Sportsbooks make Tampa Bay Rays the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 7

DraftKings · updated Fri, 7:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Boston Red Sox logo Boston Red Sox4

Tampa Bay Rays logo Tampa Bay Rays5

Final score

Boston Red Sox logo Boston Red Sox4

Tampa Bay Rays logo Tampa Bay Rays2

Pick missed

ESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV, Rays.TV — Local availability can differ.

How the model got here

Model projects 4–5, a 0.6 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 2.14-point edge toward the home side. Based on 29 and 28 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take Tampa Bay Rays +1.5

DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Thu, 4:07 PM EDT
Locked price -218
Rating high
Locked Sep 17, 4:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
Result loss

Players

Wilyer Abreu over 0.5 hits-195DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 12:18 AM EDT · result loss
Roman Anthony over 0.5 hits-211DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 12:18 AM EDT · result win
Chandler Simpson over 0.5 hits-261DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 9:08 PM EDT · result loss
Jonathan Aranda over 0.5 hits-196DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 9:08 PM EDT · result win
Junior Caminero over 0.5 hits-244DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 9:08 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Trevor Story over 0.5 hits
BOS · SS
We project 1.7Recent average 1.7 over 7 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -175
Trevor Story has averaged 1.7 hits over 7 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-175), and our model projects 1.7 — 1.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Trevor Story 1 hits
Wilyer Abreu over 0.5 hits
BOS · RF
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -195
Wilyer Abreu has averaged 1.1 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-195), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Wilyer Abreu 0 hits
Roman Anthony over 0.5 hits
BOS · LF
We project 1Recent average 1 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -211
Roman Anthony has averaged 1 hits over 8 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-211), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Roman Anthony 2 hits
Chandler Simpson over 0.5 hits
TB · LF
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -261
Chandler Simpson has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-261), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Chandler Simpson 0 hits
Jonathan Aranda over 0.5 hits
TB · 1B
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -196
Jonathan Aranda has averaged 1.2 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-196), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Jonathan Aranda 1 hits
Junior Caminero over 0.5 hits
TB · 3B
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -244
Junior Caminero has averaged 1.1 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-244), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Junior Caminero 1 hits