Post-game analysisMLBWednesday, September 16, 2026Final

Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets

Post-game analysis · Wednesday, September 16, 2026

The pick

Take Baltimore Orioles +1.5

Baltimore Orioles is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 7:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

The betting line

BAL -1.5

Sportsbooks make Baltimore Orioles the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 9

DraftKings · updated Wed, 6:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Baltimore Orioles logo Baltimore Orioles4

New York Mets logo New York Mets5

Final score

Baltimore Orioles logo Baltimore Orioles7

New York Mets logo New York Mets1

Pick covered

ESPN — Local availability can differ.

How the model got here

Model projects 4–5, a 0.5 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 0.95-point edge toward the road side. Based on 25 and 27 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take Baltimore Orioles +1.5

DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Tue, 6:07 PM EDT
Locked price -192
Rating high
Locked Sep 15, 7:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
Result win

Players

Bo Bichette over 0.5 hits-263DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 3:07 AM EDT · result win
Coby Mayo over 0.5 hits-165DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 3:07 AM EDT · result loss
Carson Benge under 1.5 hits-262DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 3:07 AM EDT · result win
A.J. Ewing over 0.5 hits-203DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 3:07 AM EDT · result win
Christian Encarnacion-Strand over 0.5 hits-166DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 3:07 AM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Chris Bassitt over 3.5 strikeouts
BAL · SP
We project 5.1Recent average 5.1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -148
Chris Bassitt has averaged 5.1 strikeouts over 2 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-148), and our model projects 5.1 — 1.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Chris Bassitt 6 strikeouts
Bo Bichette over 0.5 hits
NYM · 3B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -263
Bo Bichette has averaged 1 hits over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-263), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Bo Bichette 1 hits
Coby Mayo over 0.5 hits
BAL · 3B
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -165
Coby Mayo has averaged 1 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-165), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Coby Mayo 0 hits
Carson Benge under 1.5 hits
NYM · RF
We project 0.8Recent average 0.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -262
Carson Benge has averaged 0.8 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-262), and our model projects 0.8 — 0.7 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Carson Benge 0 hits
A.J. Ewing over 0.5 hits
NYM · CF
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -203
A.J. Ewing has averaged 0.9 hits over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-203), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: A.J. Ewing 2 hits
Christian Encarnacion-Strand over 0.5 hits
BAL · 3B
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -166
Christian Encarnacion-Strand has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-166), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Christian Encarnacion-Strand 3 hits