Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Post-game analysis · Wednesday, September 23, 2026
The pick
Take Colorado Rockies +1.5
Colorado Rockies is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 22, 2026 · 7:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
ARI -1.5
Sportsbooks make Arizona Diamondbacks the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 11
DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:08 PM EDT
Our projected score
Arizona Diamondbacks5
Colorado Rockies4
Final score
Arizona Diamondbacks5
Colorado Rockies3
Pick missed
MLB.TV, DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 23, 2026
Post-game: Diamondbacks at Rockies Run Line Recap
On Wednesday, September 23, 2026, the Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-3. That two-run final margin resulted in a loss for our pick, as Colorado failed to cover the tracked +1.5 DraftKings run line.
Our model read Arizona’s offensive output accurately. It projected the Diamondbacks to score exactly five runs and expected a competitive, low-scoring matchup relative to the total of 11, which played out as both pitching staffs largely limited big innings.
Where the projection fell short was on the Rockies' side of the ledger. The model anticipated a 5-4 outcome, relying on Colorado’s recent form to push four runs across and protect the 1.5-run cushion. Instead, the Rockies mustered only three runs, leaving them one run short of a cover and demonstrating how thin the margin for error is when backing run-line underdogs.
Matchup preview · Sep 23, 2026
Preview: Diamondbacks at Rockies Projection and Pick
The Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday night in an NL West matchup featuring a game total set at 11 runs. While road favorites frequently draw market attention, our statistical model suggests a much tighter affair at Coors Field than standard lines imply.
Drawing on 32 and 31 games of recent scoring form for Arizona and Colorado respectively, our simulation projects a 5–4 victory for the Diamondbacks. Although Arizona holds the slight advantage straight up, the model anticipates a competitive one-run final that keeps the home side firmly within reach.
That projection translates to a 1.23-point edge in favor of Colorado against the baseline spread. Consequently, our high-rated model pick is the Colorado Rockies +1.5, the number we took when lines were tracked. While statistical modeling highlights value rather than certainty, the numbers indicate Colorado has a solid mathematical case to cover the 1.5-run cushion.
How the model got here
Model projects 5–4, a -0.3 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 1.23-point edge toward the home side. Based on 32 and 31 games of scoring form.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take Colorado Rockies +1.5
- DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Tue, 7:07 PM EDT
- Locked price -118
- Rating high
- Locked Sep 22, 7:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
- Result loss
Players
- TJ Rumfield over 0.5 hits-262DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 7:08 PM EDT · result loss
- Gabriel Moreno under 1.5 hits-148DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 7:08 PM EDT · result loss
- Nolan Arenado under 1.5 hits-221DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 7:08 PM EDT · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- COL · RP
Mason Adams over 3.5 strikeouts
We project 6.1Recent average 6.1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +105Mason Adams has averaged 6.1 strikeouts over 2 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (+105), and our model projects 6.1 — 2.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Mason Adams 8 strikeouts
- COL · 2B
Adael Amador over 0.5 hits
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 6 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -224Adael Amador has averaged 1.2 hits over 6 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-224), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Adael Amador 1 hits
- ARI · SP
Merrill Kelly over 3.5 strikeouts
We project 5.4Recent average 5.4 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -159Merrill Kelly has averaged 5.4 strikeouts over 2 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-159), and our model projects 5.4 — 1.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Merrill Kelly 2 strikeouts
- COL · 1B
TJ Rumfield over 0.5 hits
We project 1.8Recent average 1.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -262TJ Rumfield has averaged 1.8 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-262), and our model projects 1.8 — 1.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: TJ Rumfield 0 hits
- ARI · C
Gabriel Moreno under 1.5 hits
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -148Gabriel Moreno has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-148), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Gabriel Moreno 3 hits
- ARI · 3B
Nolan Arenado under 1.5 hits
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -221Nolan Arenado has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-221), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Nolan Arenado 1 hits
Records & form
How our picks have graded in MLB, plus how both teams have actually played.
Today's games
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