Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Post-game analysis · Tuesday, September 22, 2026
The pick
Take Colorado Rockies +1.5
Colorado Rockies is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 21, 2026 · 3:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
ARI -1.5
Sportsbooks make Arizona Diamondbacks the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 11
DraftKings · updated Tue, 8:06 PM EDT
Our projected score
Arizona Diamondbacks5
Colorado Rockies4
Final score
Arizona Diamondbacks7
Colorado Rockies2
Pick missed
MLB.TV, DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 22, 2026
Post-game: Diamondbacks Top Rockies 7-2 as Colorado Misses Cover
On Tuesday, September 22, 2026, the Colorado Rockies failed to cover the tracked +1.5 spread in a 7-2 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. We backed Colorado on a high-rated play, projecting a competitive one-run game, but Arizona pulled away comfortably to hand us a clear loss.
Our model was aligned on Arizona winning, projecting a 5–4 Diamondbacks victory and finding value on the home underdog catching runs. However, that projection missed on both run prevention and Colorado's offensive output. The Rockies managed only two runs, leaving no margin for error once Arizona’s bats found their rhythm.
Leaning on thirty-game scoring trends failed to anticipate Colorado's quiet night at the plate. When a top-rated pick falls short by multiple runs, it is a reminder that spread buffers offer little safety when an offense stalls out entirely. We log the defeat and reset for the next card.
Matchup preview · Sep 22, 2026
Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
The Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday evening in an NL West clash. Our statistical model projects a competitive contest that leans slightly under the listed total of 11, forecasting a 5–4 victory for Arizona.
That tight projected margin creates an opportunity on the run line. When we published, we took the Rockies at +1.5. Analyzing 32 games of scoring form for Arizona and 31 for Colorado, the model estimates a 1.23-point edge in favor of the home side relative to the market line. Because the projection lands on a one-run Diamondbacks win, Colorado covers the tracked +1.5 spread, earning a high confidence rating from the model.
Statistical models highlight mathematical edges rather than certainties, especially given the natural variance of baseball. However, the data suggests Colorado's recent output gives them a strong chance to keep this matchup within a single run.
How the model got here
Model projects 5–4, a -0.3 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 1.23-point edge toward the home side. Based on 32 and 31 games of scoring form.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take Colorado Rockies +1.5
- DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Mon, 3:07 PM EDT
- Locked price +102
- Rating high
- Locked Sep 21, 3:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
- Result loss
Players
- Cole Carrigg over 0.5 hits-225DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 4:17 AM EDT · result win
- TJ Rumfield over 0.5 hits-247DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 4:17 AM EDT · result loss
- Gabriel Moreno under 1.5 hits-153DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 4:17 AM EDT · result win
- Nolan Arenado under 1.5 hits-208DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 4:17 AM EDT · result loss
- Corbin Carroll under 1.5 hits-211DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 4:17 AM EDT · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- COL · 2B
Adael Amador over 0.5 hits
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 6 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -166Adael Amador has averaged 1.2 hits over 6 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-166), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
- COL · CF
Cole Carrigg over 0.5 hits
We project 1Recent average 1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -225Cole Carrigg has averaged 1 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-225), and our model projects 1 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Cole Carrigg 1 hits
- COL · 1B
TJ Rumfield over 0.5 hits
We project 1.8Recent average 1.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -247TJ Rumfield has averaged 1.8 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-247), and our model projects 1.8 — 1.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: TJ Rumfield 0 hits
- ARI · C
Gabriel Moreno under 1.5 hits
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -153Gabriel Moreno has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-153), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Gabriel Moreno 1 hits
- ARI · 3B
Nolan Arenado under 1.5 hits
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -208Nolan Arenado has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-208), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Nolan Arenado 3 hits
- ARI · RF
Corbin Carroll under 1.5 hits
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -211Corbin Carroll has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-211), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Corbin Carroll 1 hits
Records & form
How our picks have graded in MLB, plus how both teams have actually played.
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